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To: zinc-man who wrote (2406)1/4/2003 11:42:13 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 5423
 
not now on USGovt purchasing gold mines, but later
when they get desperate from indebted USDollar crisis unfolding
I am extremely amused at the abject dearth of good analysis
the dollar is widely seen as simply staging down to a proper, healthy, more competitive level
what a joke!!!

when the dollar situation grows desperate, the reaction to fortify our currency will be multi-lateral... one such measure will be to secure gold production, which is a no-brainer... but they are too busy defending their selling patterns now... no, much later, they will reverse course and seek out collateral for the escalating federal debts
now $6,200,000,000,000
I love to write that number, and never confuse the 11 zeros

people like analogies, and I love to express them... for months I have referred to the USDollar Decline Vicious Circle... well, the circle has awesome power as it feeds upon itself... some are confused when I talk this way... here is one way I imagine it... another is like a windmill... but more dramatic is my image of a COLLAPSING BUILDING

the dollar is stepping down in several stages, one made much more gauranteed by the previous... I imagine one grand motion triggering the next motion with very large forces at work... first we have simple gravity from excessive weight... (almost nobody argues against the dollar being overweighted)... the excess weight burdens the structures until they can no longer support them, and they break... but only one level initially... as more capital mass falls into the next lower chamber, some debris from damage collects into that next chamber, adding mass... as time passes, the added mass (weight) might even attract outside deposits of voluntary mass (investments)... so the greater mass falls further into yet another lower chamber, somewhat lower in position than the last... the process continues, except that it gets more scarey and more damaging at each successive stage... progressively we see more capital damage and more debris and more voluntary contributions

the debris consists of short covering
the voluntary additions consist of new investments joining in

EACH DOLLAR STEP DECLINE MAKES THE NEXT 50% MORE LIKELY
THAT IS HOW FOREX MARKETS WORK, WITH EXTREME MOMENTUM
we are talking about $22 trillion annually in trades

eventually momentum becomes more widely recognized
"the dollar trend is now down" --- we read it occasionally
by the end of 2003, we will read this message very widely
by 2004, it will develop into an effing crisis of magnificent proportions
then the USGovt will be coerced into drastic action

by that time, I expect the demise of what we now regard as the DOLLAR to be in its final stages of decimation
what we recognize now will go out of existence
the NEW DOLLAR will be gold-backed
the owners of the OLD DOLLAR will get screwed bigtime
our modern history is replete with examples of screwing foreigners who love to invest in our Trez debt
e.g. 1970's the Arabs

first we promise to purchase their goods on a large scale
then we demand they invest in our debts on a large scale
finally we screw them by inflation mechanisms at our disposal

the dollar ride (DEMISE) will be the wildest phenomenon ever to hit the financial markets in the post-WW2 era
gold is poised to benefit

whatever you expect gold to rise, triple it
whatever you expect silver to rise, multiply by 5

/ jim
still wearing scarlet & gray stripes on my face
B.S. Computer Science and Mathematics (Ohio State 1973)