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To: Les H who wrote (4545)	1/4/2003 12:11:35 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29599

Long-term Dow technical-investor.de couldn't get page to stay in google or babel so translated text below: Dow Jones long-term actual state analysis (1896-2002) by Andreas Vester, suitor author If one looks at oneself the long-term Chartverlauf of the Dow Jones, one can only in principle be astonished. From its tiefpunkt in the year 1896 with 20,86 the index in the point added more than 56,000%. The long-term upward trend was questioned so far only by the dramatic break-down during the world economic crisis 1929-1932. In these three years the Dow lost nearly 90% of its value and took it further 25 years, until the stock exchange had recovered complete from this shock and new Highs was generated. Nevertheless one can say that the courses knew one direction since 1932 only in principle. Between 1960 and 1982 there was a lateral movement, in which the Dow Jones between 535 and 1050 points oscillated back and forth. A more serious correction, whatever only ansatzweise would be with the early 30igern to be compared, did not give it however. Since 1982 we are now in a steep upward trend, which became "disturbed" only by two easily negative years (1984 and 1990). Since the High in the year 2000 the trend has first scratches abbekommen. Can how does the situation present itself now and with which be counted in the next quarter/years? The upward trend since 1982 was scratched in the year 2002 and stands thus for arrangement. A significant break would represent a serious sales signal! The long-term upward trend line since the Low of 1932 runs at present approximately at 2700 points. Whether this line possesses however relevance is questionably, since it was not confirmed so far yet and only two points of affecting to be present. Really salient, charttechnische supports are also not to be constituted however into this range! (see Dow Jones Jahreschart since 1896) On quarter basis it is to be recognized that the Dow Jones has a support, which results ago from the Low of the yearly 1997 at 7160 points. This support was confirmed in the last quarter first. If this mark should be broken through downward, it looks however really lean, which concerns charttechnisch derivable marks. Within the range between 3580 and 3980 points a zone exists, in which the courses from 1993 to 1994 were. A really salient support is at 2720 points and results from the High of the yearly 1987. This marks represent however only orienting points, since it very much improbable is that in an institutionally coined/shaped market, how it is the Dow Jones still material post office ions are present, which of importance would be! (see Quartalschart with support zones) The view the Fibonacci Retracement level (since the outbreak from sideways rank 1982; logarithmic representation) brings itself interesting realizations! First of all it is noticeable that the Dow Jones kept itself relatively good in the last 3 years. Actually it lost straight once "38% at value since its High at 11722 points in the point". Thus the index is to be rated still very positively. The 23,6%-Retracement (6178 points), which the minimum Korrekturpotenzial represents, so far not yet ansatzweise one hurt. Interesting the comparison is now the respective Retracement level with the charttechnischen orienting points derived before. The 38,2%-Retracement is about 4157 points, thus scarcely 180 points over the first support zone. The 50%-Retracement is about 3017 points, which lies 300 points above the Highs of 1987 and above the really long-term upward trend line. If it should come to a break-down and/or to an establishment of the downtrend, these marks signal in connection with the support zones, where we could appear in (far) the future! (see Quartalschart with logarithmic Fibonaccie Retracements) How probably is it now that the support cannot be defended at 7160 points?