To: Gottfried who wrote (4732 ) 1/4/2003 1:54:48 PM From: Lizzie Tudor Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25522 Nothing is any good for prediction. How right you are, particularly if there is a turn in sentiment from bullish to bearish. Nothing predicts that (except maybe fundamentals, sometimes). This long article (thanks to stockman scott) has Asia growing 8.6% next year for PCs-For some hardware segments, like workstations and PCs, the problem is clearly a consequence of Moore's Law—falling prices [see "Tackling the Chip Glut" at spectrum.ieee.org ]. Unit shipments of workstations remained steady at around 1 456 000 in both 2001 and 2002 and are projected to rise in 2003 to 1 486 000, but revenues are falling from $6.4 billion in 2001 to a projected $5.1 billion in 2003. Unit shipments of desktop PCs also languished. They barely increased in 2002 from 2001 (the first year since 1985 that sales shrank), but look poised to rise from 98 million to 107 million units, or 8.6 percent, in 2003, thanks to strength in Asia. Revenues will be up, too, though just barely—3.1 percent, according to Gartner's projections. spectrum.ieee.org Are there any reports to confirm or contrast that asia is growing somewhere over 5%/year in PC unit shipments? I am assuming AMAT and other SCEs will benefit from any worldwide PC unit expansion. Hope thats right. re: killer app- btw we do have a killer app in IT right now, it is outsourcing to third world companies for maintenance and support. There are recipients of this trend - indian consulting firms, systems mgmt software like veritas(?- maybe) and storage. Also overseas internet bandwidth. A hard thing to play I know but it is there. And e-commerce still going strong after this retail season. What would e-commerce growth rates be if we weren't in a recession? IT mgrs have to be asking themselves this.