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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26829)	1/4/2003 1:55:01 PM
From: pogbull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

[[Their main stealth maneuvers will be accumulating gold]] Jim, as you know, I agree with you on this and believe that the chinese/islamic nations will eventually use gold to put the US to its knees. The piece below, from Harry Schultz, is a bit dated 3/02 but speaks to the concerns you've been addressing. hsletter.com Gold shareholders: My motivation in pushing gold mine chairmen to close out their hedges quickly is to help them realize the danger, as follows: A gold bull mkt (which will ignite on a 2-day close over 305) will later, freakishly & ironically, bust most investors holding shares in gold producers who have hedges of any kind. Gold will, IMO, streak first to $354 (that number produced via derivative extrapolation), where all hedged mines will bankrupt, & central banks will sell gold, sending it back to $270-$300 (?) scaring out the bulls. But derivative damage will have been so great, & mine output slashed, the price will resume its rise (as it did after a 50% fall in 1974-76 from $200 to 100), till it reaches $1,450 or better, drawing in the bulk of the public at prices over $354, 529 & 800. Then when every short has covered, who will buy? Nobody, & the fall thereafter will be so violent as to disqualify gold as a reserve asset, for such volatility. There would go our hopes for a return to the Gold Standard. The result could be gold back to $35 in our lifetime. We must prevent that. Read on. A mega-derivative squeeze is coming from Hung Fat & Dr. No. (ie, 1-2 trillionaire Chinese), which will shred the present day gold cartel into confetti. With them will go all the hedged mines! And their shareholders! Currently, U must note the concentrated gold buying on reactions, very different from the past 2 decades. Gold's bull move will only help Hung Fat & Dr. No & traders using our new gold chart service (& following it when the stakes are high & unrealized!). Before Central Banks fight the $305 & $354 levels, gold producers have the greatest (& last) opportunity in their corporate lifetimes to 'get the hell out' of every hedge position. They risk class action suits & worse if they don't. There is very little time left to do this.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26829)	1/4/2003 4:43:33 PM
From: JHP	Respond to of 74559

all this time i thought they were gay-g- >>reminds me of big dumb muscleheads, whose emotions are weak, whose egos are pea-sized, and who can be led around by the nose, if only the woman can exert the right pressures>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26829)	1/5/2003 9:02:19 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello JW, <<we in the USA will demand two things 1. continued purchase of USTBonds 2. revaluation of YUAN upward by 20-30%>> I believe a revaluation of the Yuan will result in larger import of basic material stockpiles in China (gold, oil, copper, ...) and larger FDI out of China for oil/gas/forests and whatever. I have difficulty picturing a revaluation of the Yuan without opening capital account, but then I suppose the Yuan was devalued in the absence of open capital account. <<Continue purchase of USTbonds>> ... is a tough one, given what Bernanke had to say, but is none-the-less still happening because the US has not closed its borders to trade yet. I can picture major protectionist moves in the US in 2003/2004, and when it happens, the usual stuff happens ... The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will probably have to buy more USTbonds because their 20% of reserve allocated to Euro had appreciated so much that they must rebalance, as HKD is still pegged to the USD. Should China want to devalue the Yuan alongside the USD, they too may have to buy/sell USTBonds and buy Euros, depending on current balance. Should Bernanke want China to revalue the Yuan, and China agrees, China may have to (a) sell the USTBonds, and Bernanke may have to, yikes, buy Chinese govt bonds. It is a twisted world where money is not specie and cash is paper:0) Chugs, Jay