SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2418)1/4/2003 1:01:06 PM
From: 4figureau  Respond to of 5423
 
Abby and Mary next?

>>Former analyst Blodget likely to face lawsuit
SECURITIES REGULATORS ARE EXAMINING ALLEGATIONS OF FRAUD, SOURCES DISCLOSE
New York Times

>>A Merrill spokesman said he did not know the status of regulators' investigations into Blodget. Merrill and Blodget have contended that the analyst did nothing wrong, and Merrill intends to defend itself against roughly 100 lawsuits filed by investors claiming to have been harmed by Blodget's recommendations, the firm spokesman said.<<


NEW YORK - Securities regulators have advised Henry Blodget, the former Internet stock analyst at Merrill Lynch, that he will probably be sued for fraud and other violations of securities regulations, according to someone involved in the investigation and a lawyer who has been briefed on it.

Blodget received the notice alerting him to possible action by the NASD, the nation's largest securities regulator, in the final weeks of 2002, these people said. The activities that regulators have identified as questionable relate to Blodget's public support of companies that he was deriding in e-mails to associates at Merrill.

In addition, these people said, regulators will argue that Blodget's research reports were inappropriately influenced by Merrill's investment bankers.

Blodget would be only the second high-profile analyst to be sued in the aftermath of a stock-market mania that was fueled in large part by overly optimistic Wall Street research and that has resulted in trillions of dollars of losses to investors. NASD has also sued Jack B. Grubman, the former telecommunications analyst at Salomon Smith Barney.

In an e-mail message, Blodget declined to comment. Samuel J. Winer, a Washington lawyer who represents Blodget, did not respond to calls seeking comment. A spokeswoman for NASD declined to comment.

A Merrill spokesman said he did not know the status of regulators' investigations into Blodget. Merrill and Blodget have contended that the analyst did nothing wrong, and Merrill intends to defend itself against roughly 100 lawsuits filed by investors claiming to have been harmed by Blodget's recommendations, the firm spokesman said.<<

bayarea.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2418)1/4/2003 1:05:56 PM
From: 4figureau  Respond to of 5423
 
Car manufacturers head for the junk bond yard

>>"Both GM and Ford are one false move away from the edge of investment grade," said Gary Jenkins, global head of credit research at Barclays Capital. "Given their outstanding debt burdens, autos remain one of the sectors that has the potential to destabilise capital markets in 2003."<<

By Aline van Duyn
Published: January 2 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: January 2 2003 4:00


The good news for corporate bond investors is that telecommunications, one of the market's biggest sectors and the cause of substantial losses in the last two years, is off most people's danger list.


The bad news is that the two other biggest sectors in the corporate bond market, autos and utilities, still face potential credit problems.

The health of the big US car-makers and the ability of US and European utilities to refinance billions of dollars of debt will determine the performance of the corporate debt market this year.

"Both GM and Ford are one false move away from the edge of investment grade," said Gary Jenkins, global head of credit research at Barclays Capital. "Given their outstanding debt burdens, autos remain one of the sectors that has the potential to destabilise capital markets in 2003."

In terms of credit ratings, Ford is under the most scrutiny. It is rated BBB by Standard & Poor's and a notch higher, at Baa1, by Moody's Investors Service. Both agencies have a negative outlook for the ratings. A further cut to BBB- by Standard & Poor's would bring Ford to the lowest investment grade rating.

Last year's experience ofa record number of investment grade companies losing this status and falling to "junk" ratings has heightened investor concern. The list of "fallen angels" is long: WorldCom, ABB, Vivendi Universal and Ericsson are just some of the companies that are easily recognised. And the list is expected to grow in 2003.

"We are expecting some disasters this year in terms of large companies facing severe rating cuts," said one debt investor. "We just do not know who it will be but we are avoiding sectors with large amounts of debt outstanding, just in case."

The vehicle manufacturers are among the largest issuers of debt in the US corporate bond market, with Ford, General Motors and DaimlerChrysler accounting for 6.5 per cent of Lehman's credit index - or some $128bn (£79.4bn) in debt.

Ford, with $61bn in debt outstanding, has the biggest weighting in the index, accounting for 3 per cent.

In the eurozone market, autos form about 15 per cent of the iBoxx corporate index. Only the sterling corporate bond market is relatively insulated from auto risk, with just 2 per cent of the iBoxx index exposed. In contrast, utilities form more than 15 per cent of the sterling corporate bond market.

For utilities, there are a variety of risks, including coping with large amounts of debt needing refinancing. A recent study by Standard & Poor's found that US energy companies face more than $90bn of debt refinancing over the next four years, most of it from bank lending.

In Europe, the figure is only about a third of that, but it is still a significant amount for markets to absorb.

But much of the outlook for these and other sectors depends on whether an economic recovery takes hold and the performance of equity markets. The precariousness was illustrated by a recent rating agencies report that identified all sectors other than telecommunications operators, healthcare and oil and gas as facing credit deterioration in 2003.

Anxieties over the economy, accounting standards and the potential of war with Iraq all worked to increase bond investors' risk aversion in 2002. Whether these concerns continue, or are replaced by hopes of a recovery, is the subject of much debate.

"2003 will probably turn out to be the year of the recovery, but investors are unlikely to maximise their returns by betting on it right from the outset," said David Brickman, portfolio strategist at BNP Paribas.

In the meantime, there is one bit of consolation for corporate bond investors. The asset class starts 2003 on much higher spreads over government bonds than was the case last year. "Spreads are wide enough for the majority of credits to outperform government bonds in 2003," said Mr Jenkins.

But there is a cautionary postscript: "Given the concerns about deteriorating credit, stock selection is again likely to be a driver of outperformance."

news.ft.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2418)1/4/2003 1:11:38 PM
From: 4figureau  Respond to of 5423
 
Japanese reluctantly turn to bankruptcy to survive
Ken Belson
New York Times

>>One of Japan's most profitable industries is the business of lending money to those with little or no collateral. While Americans have lived with easy credit for decades, most Japanese pay off their credit card bills each month. Increasingly, though, the lure of quick cash has turned the nation's loan companies into financial lifelines, particularly for those who do not understand the risks involved.<<


Published Jan. 2, 2003 RUPT02

OSAKA, JAPAN -- At the cramped offices of the Icho-no-kai credit counseling center in Osaka, about a dozen workers, housewives and other hard-luck cases are engaged in what has become an increasingly common ritual: They are declaring bankruptcy.

Once almost inconceivable in a nation that places such a high value on savings, Japanese are resorting to personal bankruptcy in record numbers in response to a punishing squeeze caused by five consecutive years of falling wages and rising unemployment.

As their financial woes have worsened, many have turned first to legal lenders but then often to loan sharks who charge rapidly compounding interest rates. To escape this trap, about 220,000 people are expected to seek protection from creditors this year, up more than a third from 2001.

"Out of pride, most Japanese don't want to declare bankruptcy," said Dean Perry, who follows the consumer finance industry for ING Baring Securities. "But stigma or no stigma, they will do what they need to do to get by."

Declaring bankruptcy in Japan still is relatively uncommon, and Americans are four times as likely as Japanese to seek bankruptcy protection. But as long as the stagnation of the Japanese economy continues, personal bankruptcies seem likely to continue growing sharply. According to some estimates, as many as 2 million Japanese are effectively bankrupt but haven't filed the paperwork, or can't.

Even that does not convey the full extent of the financial stress in Japan. Despite encouragement from a government that is committed to making it cheaper and easier to file for bankruptcy, every year thousands of people in distress commit suicide, police statistics show, rather than face their debt collectors, friends and families in shame.

For those who do file, bankruptcy can restore some financial breathing room. But it does not always end the harassment from those still in debt to illegal loan sharks. And few escape personal trauma of some sort.

Many debtors used their personal savings to keep their companies going before turning to loan sharks in hope of staving off ruin.

"People get desperate," said Yoshiaki Tanaka, the secretary-general of Icho-no-kai, which has experienced a sixfold increase in visitors in the past two years. "A drowning man will grasp at straws."

One of Japan's most profitable industries is the business of lending money to those with little or no collateral. While Americans have lived with easy credit for decades, most Japanese pay off their credit card bills each month. Increasingly, though, the lure of quick cash has turned the nation's loan companies into financial lifelines, particularly for those who do not understand the risks involved.

In this weak economy, low-wage workers and marginal business owners are being forced to dip deeply into their savings to pay their bills. The closing of a factory or a round of induced early retirements can push families to the brink.

Finding new work at similar pay is difficult because most workers devote their entire career to one job, leaving them unprepared to find another. To make the payroll at a family business, many Japanese seek short-term, high-interest loans to tide them over and avoid the embarrassment of having to ask friends or relatives for money.

In his 27 years as a credit counselor, Tanaka repeatedly has seen the dark side of this trend. Consumer finance companies lend money at rates up to 29.2 percent -- a ceiling set by the government -- and borrowing $4,000 is as easy as going to an automated teller machine.

Most borrowers repay their loans, but for those who cannot, the consequences can be frightful. Interest accumulates so quickly that debtors take out new loans to keep up with the previous payments due. When legitimate loan companies cut debtors off, loan sharks called yamikin can dole out fresh loans at rates up to 10 percent a day.

The police try to enforce the anti-usury laws. In the first half of 2002, 118 loan sharks who lent to more than 42,000 people were arrested. Estimates of the illegal loan market vary, but analysts say it easily exceeds 3 percent of the legal market in consumer loans, or about $3 billion.

Despite the outrageous rates, there is no shortage of takers for these loans -- a sign of how thin the line is between making ends meet and spiraling downward. It also illustrates the fuzzy border between the regulated loan companies, which cater to salaried workers, and the web of marginal operators who often have links to organized crime gangs. These illegal operators often employ brutal harassment techniques.

A government panel is deliberating over more ways to make it easier to declare bankruptcy, including speeding up the court process, easing some of the criteria and allowing people to refile for bankruptcy in less time. The government hopes that by helping ordinary workers to start over with fewer debts, they can spend more and help lift the economy.

Critics argue that this will create a moral hazard, with people borrowing excessively because they know they can escape their debts more easily. But this ignores an essential point: Most Japanese still feel a sense of obligation to repay their debts. Few would abuse the system, most experts say.

startribune.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2418)1/5/2003 4:03:47 PM
From: 4figureau  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5423
 
$$$ Out of Control

January 6, 2003
William (Bill) Buckler
Captain of The Privateer

Extracted from the Early January 2003 issue of Bill Buckler's "The Privateer"

$US 1 TRILLION FROM THE TREASURY
$US 1 TRILLION FROM THE FED
$US 500 BILLION FROM THE WORLD

That total is what the Bush Administration wants/requires - for the next 12 months - to have their war in the Middle East, to keep their external empire running, and to keep the US economy "growing.'

The US debt ceiling was raised by $US 450 Billion (from $US 5.5 to 5.95 TRILLION) in August 1997. That lasted until June 30, 2002, when the ceiling was raised by another $US 450 Billion to its present $US 6.4 TRILLION. The first raise lasted 61 months. The second raise, of the same amount, is now estimated (by the Treasury) to last for 8 months. Throw in a Middle East war, and the US Treasury is running on a profile which might see them add $US 1 TRILLION to their debt in ONE year.


On top of all that, the Federal Reserve is hammering fresh, new money into the US monetary system at a mean weekly speed of somewhat above $US 20 Billion. That shows that another $US 1 TRILLION could arrive, courtesy of the Fed, over the next 12 months.

Of course, it is a long running ongoing fact that the deficit on the US Current Account requires inflows of $US 500 Billion or so annually.

Add these figures together and the astounding result is that the US government might need $US 2.5 TRILLION borrowed and printed for the next 12 months, and that's not including ANY federal taxes.

The sum of ALL the above is simply a rampant case of fiscal INSANITY.

It is insane on the simplest kind of sum of the FACTS, which show it to be the case. This is what Americans and the world had better prepare themselves for, because this is the direction the Bush Administration is going in - even before any real WARS start.

OUT OF CONTROL:

The US economy is presently obviously suffering from a huge drag of malinvestments and overinvestments from over a decade of accelerating credit expansion since the fall of the USSR. Now, they have swung further into a program of HUGE deficit spending combined with an external war. They are trying to underpin this "policy" with yet another Fed induced credit expansion which already looks like adding up to $US 1 TRILLION to the presently circulating $US 8.55 TRILLION on an M-3 basis. These are acts of both financial and economic madness.

As this "policy of the insane" extends itself further in time, it runs huge global risks of being the cause of a COLLAPSE of the US Dollar. It is the US Dollar, and its international value which underpins the value of the Treasury debt instruments which most of the rest of the world's Central Banks and Treasuries hold as "reserves" behind their own national monetary systems. This US "policy" is gambling with the core financial systems and banking systems of the whole world. The whole world, in their turn, relies upon the soundness of their own Central Banks' financial situations. This cascade danger is real and global.

Were the US Dollar to begin an uncontrollable descent (Nasdaq style or October '87 Dow style), there would not be the means anywhere with which to address the situation. The hard economic truth is that just as markets can be taken down by false policies, so can currencies. Monetary history shows this well enough as any reasonable student can attest to. When currencies crash, being the underpinnings of the values in the marketplace, they take not only these values with them when they crash but also the entire economy.

Despite all this, based upon these "policies," the men in the Bush Administration want a WAR?!

321gold.com