To: John Biddle who wrote (30716 ) 1/7/2003 6:44:04 PM From: quartersawyer Respond to of 196920 Luna Sees... Is 2003 the year for WNP? By Lynnette Luna January 7, 2003 It has been easy to ignore wireless number portability (WNP) in light of the delays the Federal Communications Commission has granted the wireless industry. There's usually a a little firestorm before the latest deadline, but it dies down when the FCC grants another year extension. We don't hear about WNP again until the newest deadline approaches. I predict, however, that WNP will face no more delays. November 2003 will become the final deadline, and carriers must be prepared. Of course, wireless operators won't go down without a fight. After refusing to drop WNP requirements altogether last summer, the FCC instead issued another year delay. That prompted the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association and Verizon Wireless to fight WNP requirements in appeals court. Industry lobbying forces will hit the pavement hard throughout 2003 to convince the FCC to drop or postpone the mandate again. What's the argument here? Carriers say number portability will cost the industry billions to implement. Sprint PCS recently estimated that WNP will cost the company $52.7 million annually, or roughly 30 cents per month per customer. The wireless industry cites the lack of hard evidence to prove consumers overwhelmingly want to port their phone numbers to other service providers. The FCC created portability requirements to encourage competition, but carriers argue competition is already robust and customers don't mind switching phone numbers. In reality, carriers are afraid of the impact WNP will have on their churn numbers because most have failed to differentiate their products, attracting customers through cheap pricing. WNP is an issue financial analysts are beginning to fear as the wireless industry struggles to rebound from its 3% churn level and flattening growth. Simply put, the wireless industry has become too big for the FCC or the courts to ignore. The wireless executives who have continually pushed for a wireless-only world, and the ability of wireless to liberate consumers from the limitations of fixed lines, also must face the regulatory repercussions that come with the major industry their companies have created. Throughout 2002, we saw long-distance operators and ILECs complain about the wireline displacement phenomenon. Many people today are using their mobile phones to make all of their long-distance calls and in some cases cutting the cord altogether. As wireless services become more entrenched in our society, it's only natural that customers will demand to take their phone numbers with them when they switch to another service provider. It's expected in the wired world. The ironic and positive byproduct of WNP is that it will force carriers to acquire and retain customers via something other than price. Now that's a novel idea. Please e-mail me at: lyluna@msn.com.