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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pogbull who wrote (26852)	1/4/2003 10:01:22 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Centuries ago the Chinese discovered that paper money works just fine as long as the quantity printed isn't excessive. Too much paper money causes inflation, a problem we don't have at present. Others have extolled the virtues of paper money, including Adam Smith and Alexander Hamilton. On the other hand, history shows us that gold money leads to spectacular depressions, another problem we don't have at present.

To: pogbull who wrote (26852)	1/4/2003 10:55:13 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi again JWR. I saw that printing press comment and have been expecting that since back in 1999 [or maybe it was earlier] when I thought we were heading for a crunch and predicted it every month for about 7 months in a row - giving up on the predicting just 3 months too soon. Milton Friedman a few months ago also pointed out that the pixelation process of new dollars enables the Fed to avoid deflation, no matter how enthusiastically people try to create a self-fulfilling prophecy for a deflationary spiral. Boy, I'd LOVE to own that money tree. Imagine it, printing $billions and going shopping and not even causing inflation with all the dilution, thanks to the remarkable productivity due to technology developments and China and India swinging production into high gear with very low pay rates [undercutting Mexico which was supposed to be the low cost supplier]. From what I've seen of international pay rates, they aren't going up very quickly so it's fair to say that the printing process isn't excessive and thereby causing inflation. To me, that statement that they'll pixelate whatever is necessary is a confidence builder, not reducer. It shows they know what to do and have their hand on the lever. Jay Chen, with his Everlast trunks up to his nose, is squinting at Uncle Al, Uncle Sam's second, over there in the Red Corner, with his hand on a big lever. I don't think Uncle Al has things under control. Which is not to say the US$ won't drop 20% [it's already dropped 25% from its low against the Kiwi$ so another 20% will be a BIG drop, though not unimaginable]. All I mean by under control is that the US$ will retain its value relative to the Global Median Pay Rate. Not relative to gold, oil, QUALCOMM or house prices in California or anything else in particular. Just against the pay rate for the median human. That's my theory anyway on what they are trying to do. They've said their minding a global economy, not just the USA one, so they are aware of the wide obligation they have to keep the world stable. If the US$ drops too far, they can start raising interest rates. Which will make debtors squeal blue murder. Too bad. Mqurice

To: pogbull who wrote (26852)	1/5/2003 1:48:35 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>>"smart-aleck USA financial gerrymandering computer-based trading nerds"<< I'd word it as 'smart-aleck worldwide' etc. Of course German banks (to retreat to my corner of the world) learnt it from their US colleagues ("when will you dodos EVER learn what the New Economy stands for..."). Or simply bought them - you can check how their stock has been doing since... stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G