Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (1730)	1/5/2003 10:26:04 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15987

Game Theory looks at the current chips on the table, and the probable thoughts and strategies that the players are likely to form. It does not concern itself with mistakes/happenings/glories/defeats of the past. Indeed... But I'm sure it's difficult for any government, no matter how totalitarian, to not incorporate ideological rhetoric into their pragmatic decision making... N. Korea is only a strategic threat on a regional basis (the Korean peninsula and associated sea lanes).. Iraq, on the other hand, has the potential to dominate the worldest largest source of oil, the economic lifeblood of the global economy.. Thus, it's not worth the US going to war on the Korean peninsula to overthrow Saddam as there is little to be gained and much to lose... And gamesmanship would have us try and understand what will "motivate" the Chinese into assisting the US (as well as Japan and S. Korea) without trying to get something in return (Taiwan). But what is in question is whether the US has the guts to "up the anty" and threaten to permit Japan to possess nuclear weapons. And a potential downside to Japan's development of such weapons would be the required propaganda campaign that would have to be launched for consumption of the domestic Japanese justifying reneging on long-held anti-nuclear proclivities within their population. And that could unleash the restrained nationalist/militant parties in Japan... And since Japan is already facing tremendous economic issues from which it cannot easier recuperate, encouraging a new "militancy" within Japan could backfire on the US and lead to a much more reactionary Japanese government desperate to find an excuse for their economic plight. (ie: blame it on the US) What do you think about the analysis itself? I think Krugman was providing a simplistic, and utopian, analysis.. Jong has already shown that he has no respect for "carrot" agreements, thus it's almost an act of Munich style appeasement to openly negotiate with him again. Better to try and find alternative power brokers in N. Korea and set up the conditions for a fracturing of Jong's powerbase. I'm sure, despite his seeming absolute power, there are elements who understand that there is nothing to be gained by taking N. Korea on a war footing and attempting an invasion of the south. There interest is in retaining their priviledge and trying to replicate what China has been attempting through privatization of their economy (with priviledged party members acquiring state industries for their private fortunes).. We have to make Jong sweat for awhile and keep our options open.. And if we show any lack of spine with him, be will walk all over us again and push us so close to the brink that the chance for miscalculation by either side will become highly risky.. Hawk