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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (64528)	1/5/2003 10:31:30 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

John: The concept is very real and in play with natural gas as well. Petro products are a finite resource. Statistical analysis shows that when a region is explored the bigger finds occur first and then gradually smaller and smaller finds. The USA is a perfect example, Hubbert predicted it about 20 years before it occured and was ridiculed. Production curves for many countries show the process. If you superimpose all of the world production curves you can estimate we are getting very close to the global peak. With the Mideast driving the production toward the peak. Fortunately as the largest consumer wasting resources in SUV's we can afford to adjust as prices rise. But many countries wont be able to grow with cheap energy as we have. By 2010 the world will be much different.