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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ilaine who wrote (26921)1/6/2003 1:52:54 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi CB, <<I am sure you are wrong, and wish you would either throw down (prove it) or quit saying it>> By opinion regarding market I include any and all commentary on Depression, Noland, Debt, etc, and the ever all-encompassing so forth. I also remember you were out out the equity market for as long as we have conversed.

<<coins in the house>> No can do this.

<<store in a bank vault>> a must, or

... place in Concrete box, disguise by encrusting box with ocean rocks and things, drop into nearest bay, taking care to note location by Global Position System.

<<kids ... trusted to keep their mouths shut>> Tough one, can be managed by misinformation.

Chugs, Jay



To: Ilaine who wrote (26921)1/6/2003 4:00:34 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
<I bought some gold in 1999, and sold it several months later, and did not like the entire process of being buzzed into a gold emporium bearing a cashier's check, and walking out bearing heavy gold coins, and repeating the process in reverse, complicated by the fact that the buyer delayed unconscionably on making good the check, due to circumstances beyond his control (hurricane, loss of power). Too much trust involved, not enough regulation. Made me nervous having the damned coins in the house, too. And costs a bloody fortune to store in a bank vault, plus what's the point? If the world goes to hell in a hurry, you can't access your bank vault.>

When I went to check out the whole process, that's about what I saw, which confirmed my Aztec analysis of the whole deal.

Sometimes modernity is bad [thalidomide, lead in petrol] but in nearly all respects, it's good. The Federal Reserve and the US$ were created and have evolved for very good reasons.

Sure, like the Model A, they aren't the endpoint of financial transaction development, but they have stood the world in good stead over the decades.

I tried to make gold make sense, but couldn't. It's all too 3D for my liking. The transaction costs are too high. But most basic is the idiocy of spending $200 an ounce to dig the stuff out of rock, only to bury it again in a vault and pay to guard it, risk losing it [by theft or other misadventure] and then to have to move it around from time to time.

I've been buzzed into the emporium, gawped at the bars and coins. Tried to get worked up. But failed.

Also, there just isn't enough of the stuff to ever again form the world's currency. All it can ever be is a minor adjunct. Even if there is by some amazing fluke a complete financial collapse, gold will just be one of many 3D assets which become barter goods.

But if such a collapse were to happen, I'd rather own some food-producing land, which, if there isn't a crunch, I could at least go and sit on to contemplate the stars at night. My chimpoid nature is better gratified by dirt on my hands than owning gold in a vault. Land seems more real somehow. Tough to take with me if I had to flee the country, but flee to where?

I prefer to assume that, as seems likely, the world will continue to function well enough. I've never been keen on insurance [I've saved a fortune over the years by having no insurance - insurance is ridiculous;

Me: "I bet I crash my car!"

Insurance co: "Okay, you're on. We bet you don't crash it. If you crash it, you have to pay the first $1000 and each year you have to pay us [at the beginning of the year]; the probable payout, plus some for fraudulent claimants, plus some for excessive repair bills, plus some for adminstration, plus some to cover taxes, plus some for useless drivers who frequently prang, plus some profits."

Me: "Wow! What a deal. Okay, you're on. Here's my money".

That seems really stupid to me. I cut out the middle man and deal with myself as my own insurance company. I don't even have to fill in a form. If I damage somebody, I'll admit liability, apologize and offer to pay to repair their property. In 38 driving years, I've had to pay out once [learning daughter with wife teaching, crashed into neighbour's car = $1000 damage - wife distracted daughter instead of supervising the driving process, so I paid for most of the damage but daughter paid some]. I got paid once [a drunk guy who lived nearby was racing home, lost control and totalled our car, parked on the street, at 2am].

No house contents insurance. We don't get burgled. No life insurance [though did have company life insurance when working for BP - I was worth more dead than alive at one stage, which seemed to be tempting fate].

Big savings! Reinvested every year, for 38 years = retirement at young age.

Mqurice