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To: Gut Trader who wrote (212667)	1/6/2003 8:31:02 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 436258

BEST OF RICHARD RUSSELL - What about next year, the year 2003? What do I know – it hasn’t happened yet. January 2, 2003 But I can guess. My own guess is that next year is going to be an S.O.B. In case you don’t know what that means, S.O.B. stands for son-of-a-bitch. Translated that means that I think 2003 is going to be a very difficult year. Russell, why are you saying that? I’m saying it because – There is still FAR too much bullishness, considering that this bear market is not even close to being completed. This bear market is three years old, and the Dow has not lost as much as half of its bull market gains -–and I'm talking about the bull market of 1974 (Dow 577) to 2000 (Dow 11722). Half of the bull market’s gains would take the Dow back to 6149. We’re not there yet, but I think there will get there – probably next year. The Market will be down three years in a row. This is a very rare and bearish series. I believe that this series is the market’s way of discounting important deterioration in the economic, social and political fabric of the nation. This deterioration, I believe, will begin to show in 2003. The Greenspan Fed has been a mainstay for bullish hope among investors. I believe that in 2003 Greenspan will be discredited and doubts will arise regarding the usefulness of the Federal Reserve (criticism of the Fed will increase, and many will begin to see the Fed as "part of the problem"). With the bear market deepening, Bush’s popularity will plunge and many of his policies will be disparaged. Unemployment will increase substantially in 2003, and consumers will become increasingly disillusioned. Debt will become a crushing problem and the operative phrase will be "With these low rates, where can I get some income?" The dollar will continue its decline and the rising price of gold will tell Americans that "something is terribly wrong." I think the housing bubble is living on borrowed time. Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters PO Box 1759 La Jolla, CA 92038 17 Letters Per Year - $250 Annually All Rights Reserved © 2002 Investment Rarities, Inc. For Web Site Questions Contact the Web Master Disclaimer investmentrarities.com