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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (151384)	1/7/2003 3:43:41 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

China is not going to go into a meltdown, although they do have transition issues including cleaning up their banking sector. The more realistic concern is what happens if the US drops into a new period of recession and deflation and does not respond to lower interest rates -- then you could have global problems with currency instabililty and excess capacity. That is part of the message in the run-up in gold prices. The US is running up a big trade deficit alongside of a big government spending deficit while facing a costly and uncertain war which seems to grow on new fronts by the day. Far from being more stable, the world has grown more unstable in the past year. Further military conflict and social upheaval are a far more immediat threat than anything about Chinese instability -- China is one of the few stable places in the global scene.