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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (15633)	1/8/2003 3:09:48 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

Well, I agree with that in principle. The key is to keep GDP growing while we wait for technical obsolesence. My home computer is Windows98. I am on NT at work. John Chambers said yesterday that Video on Demand will eventually come and be the follow-on story to corporate networks that will already need to be upgraded becasue they are now 'running hot'. In normal economic times, networks would have been upgraded by now. However, the longer we go without doing it, the more substantial the growth phase. Profits ramp and disappear quickly in the New Economy so the key is new products. Nobody makes any money on older products so its 'profitless prosperity' for the tech economy until then. However, boatloads are made when new products enter the market and ramp at high margin. The obsolesence provides some comfort that the end is in sight, its only a matter of time. Meanwhile, everyone says they have no visibility. So, basically everyone is flying blind and so investors are bearish. Blind doesn't = negative but Blind doesn't = positive either so we are in a world where forecasting is out the window. This year is a fly-blind, trading year...