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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (22820)	1/8/2003 4:45:16 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 30712

Based on The Data There Is A 50% Chance We were down twice before 3 years in a row. One of those times it went to 4 years, one of those times it didn't. Clearly this is almost a meaningless analysis except I think it does have more value than the analyst spin that because we have only been down 4 years in a row once in the last century that there is a very small chance of this year being down. It ridiculous not to recognize that all of the factors which which resulted in down three years in a row are not to a greater or lesser extent still exerting an influence on the fourth year. Actually the probability of our being down four years in a row at the end of this year is infinitely greater than it was last year. <gg> & <ng>