To: Mephisto  who wrote (4761 ) 3/9/2003 3:16:35 PM From: Mephisto     Respond to    of 5185  Markets threatened by 'new   world disorder'  "'Bush is giving people the opportunity to join him but he's not that bothered what their response is. That's pretty worrying because it could leave the world in serious disarray.'                                                             Faisal Islam, economics correspondent                                                           Sunday March 9, 2003                                                           The Observer                                                            Global stock markets will slump further into turmoil if there is a                                                           war on Iraq without a clear United Nations mandate, the City is                                                           warning.                                                            Bond and stock traders fear action by the United States and                                                           Britain without backing this week from the UN Security Council                                                           could lead to economic and financial disruption around the                                                           world.                                                            'The political damage could be massive - globally, regionally,                                                           between and within nations - new world disorder,' said Mark                                                           Cliffe, chief economist at ING Financial markets. 'This would                                                           imply greater postwar instability, heightened terrorist risks and                                                           collateral damage to economic relations.'                                                            Cliffe believed this 'would see US growth dive back to zero,                                                           stock markets take another dive, the Fed cutting its funds rate                                                           to 0.5 per cent and the dollar down to €1.20'.                                                             Japanese markets are already at a 20-year low, European                                                           markets are touching seven-year lows, and the FTSE 100 index                                                           fell every day last week, ending up below the 3,500 level that                                                           sees the prospect of forced selling under insurance company                                                           solvency rules.                                                            In recent weeks movements of the dollar on foreign exchanges                                                           have become acutely sensitive to news that harms the American                                                           case for war at the UN, such as Iraq's destruction of proscribed                                                           missiles, and the dovish tone of reports from weapons                                                           inspectors, according to research by Morgan Stanley.                                                            David Buik of Cantor Index said: 'Bush is giving people the                                                           opportunity to join him but he's not that bothered what their                                                           response is. That's pretty worrying because it could leave the                                                           world in serious disarray.'                                                             Many economists pointed to the direct financial costs of the US                                                           and Britain acting without the UN. 'What the market's taken so                                                           badly is the feeling that the US is going it alone and the costs of                                                           war are very high,' said Hilary Cook, director of investment                                                           strategy at Barclays Private Clients. The bills would be easier to                                                           accept if they were pooled.                                                            A study by Lehman Brothers' chief economist John Llewellyn                                                           says that regardless of who backs any action there is a one in                                                           10 chance of an 'open-ended conflagration' which would lead to a                                                           Viet nam war-sized bill for the US, 'equivalent to 12 per cent of                                                           contemporary GDP', or $1.2 trillion.                                                            Avinash Persaud, managing director of State Street Bank,                                                           believes timing is vital: 'The market wants whatever happens to                                                           be quickly resolved, and unilateral action is less likely to be                                                           quickly resolved.                                                            'A UN-sponsored resolution that led to the UN-sanctioned                                                           rebuilding [of Iraq] is most conducive to swift action.'                                                           Economists warn that even a quick, successful war for the US is                                                           unlikely to lead to a surge in markets or immediate economic                                                           upturn.                                                            Persaud added:'Investors will be waiting on the sidelines for                                                           peace, rather than buy on the sound of gunfire.'                                                            · Just days before a possible war, US firms are buying two-                                                           thirds of the Iraqi oil exported under the UN oil-for-food                                                           programme, said the research firm Energy Intelligence. guardian.co.uk