Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (64977)	1/8/2003 3:06:00 PM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

You wrote:"My point is everyone who has forecasted oil reserves and demand in the 100 years has done a terrible job imo.... " Hubbert was right about the peak in oil production in the USA that occurred in 1970. The same techniques are being used to predict the peak in world wide oil production. Suggest you study Bayes theorem on the interpretation of a priori statistics since you use this theorem when you write "My point is everyone who has forecasted oil reserves and demand in the 100 years has done a terrible job imo.... " Think of it as the following problem: You are the president of a rocket company building 2 rockets to be sent to the moon. Rocket 1 and 2 are identical. #1 is an unmanned test rocket. You will fly in rocket #2. You ask your QC manager, "What are the chances that rocket 1 will blow up before reaching the moon? He says 1 in 10 billion. Rocket 1 gets sent up and blows up. What do you do? Hubbert and his techniques are like that little voice that tells you not to take rocket #2.