Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (7677)	1/8/2003 4:24:11 PM
From: keokalani'nui	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Anyone who has time might listen to the keynote speech at JPMHnQ, by the Harvard Business School Professor. He gives a very interesting conceptual framework for looking at why technology leaders fall (not why they fail to recognize disrupting technology, but why they fail to embrace and succeed with it) from prominence. At the end he speaks about the healthcare industry in which his model does a better job in helping one identify what may be a disruptive business model (and thus one of great growth). His assumption for there ever being reform is based on returning purchasing decisions to the consumer, so I'm not sure how much 'disruptive technology' he expects imminently in healthcare. I thought it was well worth it. Skip the first 3 minutes. I also think 2003 is going to be a great year for Pharma, tier 1/2 biotech, and then always at the end...a ka-boom!! year for the juniors.

To: Biomaven who wrote (7677)	1/8/2003 4:33:20 PM
From: tuck	Respond to of 52153

I have not seen CHIR forecast beyond '03. From their Q302 PR: >>Chiron expects its 2003 pro-forma earnings per share to be between $1.40 and $1.50. In 2003, Chiron expects total revenue to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion and product revenues to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion. Gross margins on a corporate-wide basis are expected to be consistent with 2002. Operating expenses are expected to be higher by approximately 10 percent and the tax rate is expected to be at or slightly lower than the 2002 tax rate.<< Taking the middle of the range (which is where the aggregate of analyst estimates is) yields ~15% growth. They may have gone out further at H&Q; I have not listened. Edit: As some may know, I have shorted CHIR on my short thread, and even once in real life. No current position. Cheers, Tuck