To: Softechie who wrote (4640 ) 1/8/2003 4:39:52 PM From: Softechie Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29600 CAPITAL VIEWS: Don't Count Your Tax-Free Dividends Yet 08 Jan 10:35 By John Connor A Dow Jones Newswires Column WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The question now is: How will President George W. Bush's tax cut plan fare on Capitol Hill? The House probably could ram it through on a straight party line vote, but the Senate is a different story. The Republicans control the Senate by the narrowest of margins, and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., already is off the team. Others of the McCain persuasion no doubt can be found among the shrinking ranks of Republican moderates, particularly folks from the Northeast such as Sen. Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I. The Bushies probably can lasso a Democrat or two, say, someone like Zell Miller, D-Ga. But Sen. John Breaux, D-La., who helped Bush on cutting taxes in 2001, isn't going to be playing along this year. Senate Republicans will be to try to do a tax package under so-called reconciliation budget rules that allow them to avoid having to win supermajority votes. But even if that works, they'll still need 51 votes, and those votes aren't there right now. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charley Grassley, R-Iowa, by definition a key player in the impending Congressional tax deliberations, had this lukewarm endorsement: "So far, I'm more impressed with the President's plan than with the House Democrats' plan." The centerpiece of the Bush package, exempting dividends from individual income taxes, will generate significant in-the-trenches opposition from diverse quarters, ranging from high techies to the National Organization of Women to good-government, anti-deficit types, among many others. NOW? Yes. In denouncing the Bush plan, the group said, "Women and children will be the first to suffer as this fiscal irresponsibility drives our nation deeper and deeper into debt." Among those unhappy with the Bush plan is the National Governors Association, which said the proposed tax exemption for dividends would likely reduce state revenues by an additional $4 billion per year and thus exacerbate the current severe fiscal stress on state governments across the nation. The governors didn't get into the other matter of tax-free dividends competing with their tax-free bonds, but they will. The National League of Cities was faster off the mark on the muni issue, grousing that "eliminating taxes on dividends would reduce the preference of municipal bonds, which cities rely on." There's much more to come. The New Year is only one week old. Subscribers can find Capital Views on: Telerate page [4021] Dow Jones Newswires by searching the code N/POV Bloomberg by entering NI POV Reuters by entering keyword Capital Views (John Connor, a veteran observer of the financial markets and the Washington scene, is Washington bureau chief for Dow Jones Newswires. He can be reached by E-Mail at John.Connor@DowJones.Com) (END) Dow Jones Newswires 01-08-03 1035ET