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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (20251)	1/8/2003 5:51:16 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Respond to of 57110

That was very interesting. I have been thinking about the fact that the downturn is related to the degree of excess in the upturn, and that article quantified it nicely. One thing to look at in those charts: The third year of the 3 or 3+ year downturns always seemed to be the most severe. When the fourth year was down, it was not down as much as the third year. One defensible macro strategy this year will be to pick a spot a few percent below year's beginning and enter then regardless of what is going on in the daily noise. Chances are pretty good that you will come out ahead within a year's time.