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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (1936)	1/9/2003 7:30:45 AM
From: zonder	Respond to of 15987

>>civilized behaviour or lack thereof has nothing to do with Game Theory, which is concerned with (naturally selfish) strategies for survival<< In an ideal situation yes What ideal situation? That's what it is... But what motivation could Jong have in pursuing a nuclear option that he knew would force the West to take back everything he has gained over the past 10 years?? Did he just overplay his hand, or is he playing for even higher stakes in a "winner take all" scenario, at the risk of destroying both nations?? Was the below summary of the analysis I posted not clear in some way? I don't know how else to paraphrase it. Here it is again: Game Theory decision to go forward with a nuclear weapons program given that: (1) N. Korea is already named in "axis of evil" and knows it will be their turn soon after Iraq (2) Iraq example shows not heaving weapons is no guarantee that you will not be invaded (3) Nuclear weapons will deter any country from invasion (4) Result: Restart nuclear weapons program Thus, his rational interest should be to play sufficiently "nice-nice" I am not sure if Bush admin's current attitude towards Iraq, which seems to be playing "nice" (allowing complete access to inspectors, and no sign of WMDs found yet etc), gives much hope to anyone on the "Axis of Evil" list that playing nice could possibly work. Game theory also has the issue of whether we're playing for Zero Sum, or Non-Zero Sum results. International relations are usually not zero-sum games, which are defined as games where the amount of winnable goods are fixed. Hence, whatever is gained by one actor is lost by the other. It is applicable to situations like two countries fighting for a newly discovered oil field or something similar where it is impossible for both to win and at the end, one wins the goodies. So, the current situation with North Korea being listed in the "Axis of Evil" and then deciding to restart the nuclear program is obviously not a zero-sum game. Btw, Jong has been pursuing his nuclear program WELL BEFORE Bush labeled his country as part of the "axis of evil". I thought it was on pause.