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To: JRI who wrote (63126)1/8/2003 8:09:29 PM
From: Shack  Respond to of 209892
 
My experience is that with respect to the big SPX contract, it is worth watching the commercials . I find there is predictive value when the commercials cover their shorts or get shorter. This chart shows the heavy shorting activity last march and the subsequent covering at the Oct low.
softwarenorth.net

Certainly it is no perfect timer but it is better than what I see from tracking the large traders.

I find the NDX and the other contracts have far less predictive value in their COT reports if any at all, although I have seen value in fading the small specs in the NQ mini.