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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (3231)	1/8/2003 11:09:34 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 37387

PuddleGlum, MPOW .. I expect a Book value (without ANY GOODWILL becuase it shed all of it) between $1.30-1.50 per share at the end of the quarter (March 03), PR to be announced in april and north of $1.25 this quarter (10K9 As for UNE-P and UNE-L, I can tell you MPOW is certainly NOT UNE-P Look here: mpowercom.com We have never utilized line sharing in our DSL deployment and have never been in favor of the UNE-P reselling approach," said Rolla P. Huff, Mpower Communications Chief Executive Officer. "The control, flexibility and underlying economics of our facilities-based strategy has allowed us to be a viable competitor and a high-quality service provider." If you mean with UNE-L the approach where the CLEC rents the loop from the RBOC at Telric but does everything else himself I think this describes MPOW's business quite well. They have 568 colocations before and around 325 after the transaction. Revenue on a going forward base is around $150-160 million per quarter. Gross Margin should improve from 42% pre-transaction to more than 50% afterwards.. a word of caution - don't overextent into risky stocks. Here the fact that debt was eliminated and book value revalued after Chapter 11 makes the underlying figures more solid, so generally post Chapter11 OTC stocks are less risky regarding the underlying numbers of the balance sheet items but more risky with regard to market perception because lack of interesting public rgrds CROSSY

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (3231)	1/8/2003 11:12:07 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 37387

re: MPOW Tomorrow might be a good day to nibble some MPOW cheaply. I think many people will misperceive the restructuring. If it opens down it will be quite an opportunity. Let any wave of selling ebb and enter afterwards. If it opens up, I cannot offer this sort of clue.. Important now is Book value I think. Stock at $0.27, Book value north of $1.30. The restrucuring transcations should have made MPOW.OB EBITDA positive.. Triple is possible over 6 months. MAybe more. My focal point is book value.. implying a 4-5 bagger if all runs well. rgrds CROSSY

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (3231)	1/11/2003 10:45:13 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 37387

Puddleglum, re: MPOW.OB while we may see some shortterm weakness due to uncertainty - which will get lifted this spring when the 10K will be out in March and the next 10Q in mid-May, there have been some interesting facts obtained on the Ragingbull thread. One participant from Yahoo MPWR thread claimed that MPOW is laying off 40% of ALL their employees. That implies additional cuts in personnal expenses beyond those employees that were transferred to the new carriers. My new payroll count is at 500-600, maybe even less instead of 1500 formerly. Churn should be reduced significantly because the company was pushing to offer mutually fair 2 year bundled plans, in a time when longdistance and bandwidth becomes more expensive, many users (small biz) did sign up. I found out that there may be a transaction going forward with - IMHO - (this is my guess only) - Broadview of New York, which has approx. the same size on the Eastcoast (around 300.000 access lines) as Mpower on the Westcoast. They bought Network Plus of Massachusetts recently (access line number included). Interestingly, Broadview was almost ready to IPO in 200 but then the stock market broke down.. rgrds CROSSY

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (3231)	1/19/2003 4:15:36 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37387

re: MPOW.OB (Mpower Communications Inc.) @ $0.25 I did some calcs on MPOW and found that right now Book Value per share is around $1.65-1.70 including EVERYTHING .. gain on repurchase of debt, asset sale, EBITDA negative of $23m (very conservative assumption) for last quarter etc.. The real shame is that the "standstill agreement" between (I think ASPEN) and MPOW expires Monday and today the report was published. GRRR... Even without revenue increases (likely if they concentrate Selling activity in 3 states) I firmly think they will do better than stated. Why ? 1) MPOW projected Gross Margins of 40-45%. This is way too low IMHO. Notice that they kept colocations that were all T1 equipped vs. all the non T1 they sold plus Florida. So Gross Margins MUST BE HIGHER. My minimum is 50%. 2) MPOW shed more SG&A related personnel in the process. The asset sale brought 40% reduction in employees which were transferred to the new owners for reapplication. MPOW now has 900 emps (instead of 1500 previously) 3) Some RB posters alleged MPOW to shed additional 40% of their workforce AFTER the asset sale took place. Would bring the total down to 550 positions and would bring MPOW into the productivity ratios of Telepacific - same footprint, under 400 emps.. Let me model my P&L assumptions (in a MONTHLY fashion) 1) monthly historical base until asset sale - most pessimistic data, using Q3 figures extrapolated Revenues: $19.2m - COG Sold : -$11.5m (60%) GROSS MArgin : 7.7m (40%) - SG&A : -13.4m EBITDA : -5.7m D&A : -1.9m EBIT : -7.6m 2) New ratios after asset sale Revenues : $12m -COG % : -6.6m (55%) GM : 5.4m (45%) SG&A : -5.9m EBITDA : -0.5m D&A : -1.2m EBIT : -1.7m Now I think that Gross Margin is understated. If it would get to 50% we would be EBITDA positive. If SG&A would be reduced by further 40% we would save another $2m DIRECTLY APPLICABLE TO THE BOTTOM LINE Telepacific is almost assured as a merger partner IMHO.. best rgrds CROSSY