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To: Bucky Katt who wrote (10167)	1/9/2003 1:47:32 PM
From: tsigprofit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48461

QQQ put - thanks. Oh - and... What do you think of using USPIX - a Nasdaq short X 2 fund for this purpose in an IRA where you can't get puts, or anyplace else when you can't do puts? Not an exact substitute, but I would think it would be better than 100% long all the time. matt

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (10167)	1/9/2003 4:56:03 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 48461

re: MHCA.OB Mariner Health Care IMHO this is another gem that came out of Chapter 11 this summer.. SEC filings: sec.gov. Company Description: Mariner Healthcare, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively, the “Company”) provide post-acute health care services, primarily through the operation of its skilled-nursing facilities. The company was previously named "Mariner Post Acute Network" MHCA is by no means small and had historic annual revenue of around $1.8bn implying a quarterly revenue base of around $450m. the two 10Qs filed post Chapter 11 point to a certain consolidation and restructuring, in so far the company couldn't grow revenues this year during BK but managed to post quarterly revenue levels of around $440m, implying annual revenues of around $1.7m. The ticker symbol MHCA is for the "new common", which was exchanged for bondholders in the Chapter 11 process, of which a mere 20m shares are out. The New Common shares are still traded at the OTC/BB but given the balance sheet items wrt. to tangible net assets and the fact that MHCA is trading above $5, it should qualify for the NASDAQ NM and be able to make the move anytime soon. Instutional investors: In the recent filings I identified at least the following institutional owners in Mariner Health (MHCA.OB) that have provided the company exit equity when the Chapter 11 process was completed and Mariner was able to emerge this summer Oaktree Capital : 24% of common or 4.8m shares Greenlight Capital : 7% of common or 1.4m Foothill Cpital : 7.7% of common or 1.5m Highland Capital : 5% of common of 1.2m other : 7.4% or 1.4m Valuations of MHCA.OB: Revenue : $1.7bn annual, $443m quarterly Capital Structure : 20m # shares of New common out, Symbol: OTC/BB : MHCA (or MHCA.OB), also 0.7m warrants were issued with a strike price of $28 Book Value : Shareholder's equity is around 360m, already up materially from the 334m recorded on emergence (last 10q). Since Intangibles (good in this case for future tax-offsetting on writedowns) are around $270m, adjusted book value and net tangible assets are around $90m or around $4.5 per share Current Price : $6.25 Price / Sales Ratio: Around 0.07 - comparable hospital companies have PSR ratios up to in excess of 1 Long term debt is down from $2bn to $440mpost Chapter11 and primarily consists of a term loan $210m and a senior credit facility of $150m. Interestingly interest rates attached are very low, around 5-7% only.. an indiction of the financial strength the lenders credited Mariner with. Most recent 10Q data QUARTERLY Gross Margin : 27% (Revenues - Direct Costs) Operating Income : $18m Interest Payments : around $8m Net Income Pretax: $10m or $0.50 EPS, After tax $0.30. Annual EPS potential to around $2 pretax and $1.20 after going forward. If deleveraged, up to $3.80 pretax per year. It appears to me that despite it's encouraging fundamentals, the company is totally underfollowed. I have neither spotted any message board or postings on this firm. Recently Oaktree has filed a registration statement for 3.6m of their 4.5m holding in MHCA - around 18% of outstanding, which might depress the price in the shortterm. However this should be taken with caution as it simply provides Oaktree with a legal title to sell shares on the open market if they might want to, it doesn't confer that Oaktree actually is intending to sell, more importantly not at this stage.. The company propped up its "self insurance" reserves in the last 10Q to almost $190 or 11% of annual net revenues. best rgrds CROSSY