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Strategies & Market Trends : Can you beat 50% per month? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (5412)	1/9/2003 2:51:17 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Respond to of 19256

DOW has seen its highs All down from here, with shorts to follow. 8752 now edit- Always entertaining to read the headlines as they vacillate from day to day. The trick is to stay with trend and not get caught up in the hype. Because a couple of companies have boosted their outlook, we should expect the market to suddenly reverse course? Whatever is boosted by short-lived optimism always comes back to earth with the rest of the market. With 8800 protecting upside, Last hour drop coming 8766 now Dow rallies on economic optimism Thursday January 9, 1:45 pm ET By Steve Gelsi NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average galloped to a triple-digit gain in afternoon action as a flood of retail numbers and earnings boosts from SAP and General Motors fed recent optimism. ADVERTISEMENT The so-called January effect appears to be on course as investors switch back into a buying mood on the heels of a disastrous 2002. Charles Pradilla, chief investment strategist of SG Cowen, said the cause of the rally is hard to pin down to one cause. Factors include Bush's economic plan, signs of an uptick in the economy and the strong performance of late in the stock market that's "setting the right tone.". In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan cited an atmosphere that's "sympathetic to equities" amid January portfolio-rebalancing activities. Others cited some positive moves on the geopolitical front as resolution of the Iraq situation neared with the release of a final report from U.N. arms inspectors. Signs of a possible thaw in U.S. relations with North Korea surfaced. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (CBOT:^DJI - News) flew up 130 to 8,725. The S&P 500 (CBOE:^SPX - News) rose 13 to 923. And the Nasdaq (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) added 34 points to 1,435. Sector leaders such as Wal-Mart, GM and even No. 1 beer maker Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD - News) all helped push stocks higher. Even AOL Time Warner, the world's biggest media company, reversed earlier losses and edged up. The Nasdaq zoomed up 2.5 percent on strength in networking and software stocks. A rosy licensing revenue report from SAP (NYSE:SAP - News) helped push shares of Oracle (NasdaqNM:ORCL - News) to a ten-month high. Cisco (NasdaqNM:CSCO - News) is the volume leader on the Nasdaq with a gain of 4 percent to $14.94. Lucent (NYSE:LU - News) ticked up 8 percent to $1.64 as the volume leader on the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow picked up speed in the morning after the Commerce Department reported that inventories at U.S. wholesalers nosed up 0.2 percent in November. Sales rose 1.2 percent, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio to a new record low of 1.21. The rally held after Freddie Mac said the 30-year mortgage averaged 5.95 percent for the week ending Jan. 10, up from 5.85 percent a week earlier, but it stayed below the 6 percent mark for the third week in a row. Bear Stearns economist John Ryding said the bank is "growing increasingly positive on the outlook for the economy" because of strength in the manufacturing sector and fiscal-stimulus moves under way in the U.S. GM (NYSE:GM - News) shares gained 88 cents to $39.09 as a positive profit forecast from the auto giant helped to neutralize woes over its pension liabilities. While the No. 1 automaker said its pension program was underfunded by $19.2 billion at the end of 2002, it also said it'll beat analysts' 2003 consensus profit forecast of $4.82 per share. GM is now eyeing a $5-per-share profit in 2003. Pension expenses will rise to $3 billion, up from $1 billion in 2002, it said. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) led the parade of holiday retail reporters. The world's largest retailer said December sales rose 9.5 percent to $31.6 billion. Same-store sales added 2.3 percent, within the company's lowered estimate range of 2 to 3 percent. Shares rose $1.03 to $51.02. See Retail Stocks. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for February delivery traded at $352.60 an ounce, down $1.70, as money flowed back into equities. See Metals Stocks. In the merger and acquisition arena, U.S. Steel (NYSE:X - News) shares rose 4 percent to $13.45 as it confirmed plans to buy National Steel (NSTLB - News) for $950 million. Best Buy (NYSE:BBY - News) shares jumped 9 percent to $26.55 after the retailer forecast earnings of $1.05 to $1.10 for the quarter ending with February, above the average analyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call, $1.04 a share. It also set plans to close 110 Musicland stores. Not all the retailing news was good: BJ's (NYSE:BJ - News) shares fell 5 percent and Talbot's (NYSE:TLB - News) gave up 7 on bearish profit views. The S&P Retail Index (CBOE:^RLX - News) jumped 2.5 percent. Art Hogan of Jefferies & Co. said investors' focus has shifted to company-by-company analysis from big-picture issues such as the president's stimulus plan. Hogan said the Nasdaq (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) is getting a lift on positive moves by SAP (NYSE:SAP - News) and Foundry Networks (NasdaqNM:FDRY - News) , which upped its profit forecast. SAP rose 6 percent to $23.83, and Foundry jumped 19 percent to $9.67. See Movers. The closely watched four-week moving average of jobless benefits claims fell 13,750 to 406,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Even with the decline the level remains above the important 400,000, which denotes a still very weak labor market, but no dramatic turn for the worse. AOL Time Warner (NYSE:AOL - News) rose 12 cents to $14 despite reports that the media giant is preparing to book a charge against earnings of at least $10 billion because of continued deterioration in the value of its struggling America Online unit, as the Washington Post reported. AOL is expecting to reveal the charge on Jan. 29 and has alerted Wall Street analysts that a "substantial" noncash charge is coming, the Post said. UBS Warburg analyst Chris Dixon reiterated a "strong buy" rating on the stock and pointed out in a note to investors that AOL has already mentioned such a charge and that it won't affect the company's liquidity or result in noncompliance with any debt covenants. Accenture (NYSE:ACN - News) reported first- fiscal-quarter results that met Wall Street expectations and provided an earnings outlook that was in line with current forecasts. Shares fell 28 cents to $18.32. Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL - News) shares fell 2 percent to $17.07 after it was downgraded by Merrill Lynch to "neutral" from "buy" on weakness in the leisure sector on the heels of warnings from MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGG - News) and Mandalay (NYSE:MBG - News) . "Unemployment, uncertainty regarding the Middle East, and declining consumer confidence have combined to reduce the prospect for healthy leisure expenditures in 2003," Merrill said in a note to clients. Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD - News) rose 2 percent to $50.09 after the brewing behemoth reported record beer sales in 2002.

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (5412)	1/22/2003 10:44:56 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Respond to of 19256

MER today fessed up that without renewed interest in the markets, they are in trouble. Message 17919794 The whole chain will follow. Reuters Merrill Cost Cuts Offset Weaknesses Wednesday January 22, 9:54 am ET By Brian Kelleher NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. on Wednesday said profit before special items jumped 25 percent in the fourth quarter on cost cuts, but the No. 1 U.S. brokerage warned of revenue erosion if weak stock markets dog its key trading and investment banking businesses. ADVERTISEMENT Chief Executive Stan O'Neal has spearheaded a dramatic restructuring that has seen Merrill (NYSE:MER - News) cut more than 21,000 jobs in the last two years. The steep decline in costs has boosted the firm's profitability, but Merrill needs stock markets to cooperate. "It will be difficult to maintain 2002 revenue levels in the current year" if markets do not improve, O'Neal said in a statement. Merrill's full-year 2002 revenue totaled $18.6 billion, down 15 percent from 2001. Merrill reported fourth-quarter earnings of $615 million, or 64 cents a share, before one-time items, up from $491 million, or 51 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. On average, analysts had expected 63 cents a share, with estimates ranging from 56 cents to 66 cents, according to market research firm Thomson First Call. Including costs related to the settlement in the Wall Street stock-research scandal and other items, Merrill's net earnings were $603 million, or 63 cents a share. The company reported a year-earlier net loss of $1.26 billion, or $1.51 a share, including a $1.7 billion after-tax charge to pay for 9,000 job cuts. Total net revenue fell 12 percent in the fourth quarter, to $4.2 billion. "Revenues were a little disappointing," said Jeffery Harte, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill, but he called the quarter a good performance nonetheless. "The revenue shortfall they more than made up for on the expense side," he said. TRADING REVENUE DOWN Revenue from trading stocks and bonds fell 39 percent, but net interest income -- derived from lending operations -- was up 9 percent. Revenue from brokerage commissions fell 10 percent to $1.1 billion, underwriting revenue fell 22 percent to $420 million, and advisory revenue fell 22 percent to $163 million. Asset management revenue was down 14 percent to $1.1 billion. Under the watchful eye of O'Neal, who was promoted from president to CEO last month, Merrill's profitability has risen to its highest level in years, despite falling revenues. Compensation costs fell 13 percent in the fourth quarter as the firm has fewer employees, and it is also paying a lower ratio of compensation to net revenue. Merrill cut 2,300 jobs during the fourth quarter. It has cut its staff by 30 percent since a peak of 72,600 employees in the 2000 third quarter. Excluding Sept. 11-related items and restructuring charges, non-compensation expenses fell 25 percent in the fourth quarter. Merrill had to cough up $211 million in 2002 to pay for the broad probe into Wall Street's stock-research practices. In May it agreed to pay $100 million to settle charges stemming from the investigation. Eleven securities firms agreed to pay a total of $1.4 billion in the settlement. Merrill rival Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - News), one of those involved in the settlement, has set aside $1.3 billion for potential costs stemming from research and Enron-related lawsuits. Merrill may not have as much exposure on the Enron side as Citigroup, analysts said, but Harte said he was interested in the potential for setting up litigation reserves. Merrill executives will discuss results with investors on a conference call later Wednesday morning. Merrill's stock was down 23 cents to $39.85 is early New York Stock Exchange trade. The stock rose 15 percent during Merrill's fourth quarter, performing in line with the Amex Broker-Dealer Index (AMEX:^XBD - News), which was up 14.5 percent. biz.yahoo.com