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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (74)	1/10/2003 2:06:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 1210

competitive currency devaluation will become a DYNAMO for gold this is overlooked by many gold watchers even as each major continent undermines the resident currency (yen, euro, dollar) in order to either support the export economy or prevent the deflation from taking hold... gold will rise as a result I SEE IT AS A LEAPFROG PROCESS, BIDDING UP GOLD CONTINUOUSLY what you cite is a risk for mitigating further massive dollar devaluation but the effect on gold is utterly magnificent casual economic students simply miss this DYNAMO effect / jim

To: philv who wrote (74)	1/10/2003 3:46:03 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1210

unemployment rate will be tricky because USGovt/Fed monetization could save many jobs at the expense of currency debasement and price inflation I will never back down from an estimation challenge though I thought 2002 would have ended above 6.0% our economy is incredibly stubborn, but not invinceable we have several factors to consider on job layoffs - car sector implosion (with full vertical integration) - gradual stall (then decline) of real estate - continued mainstream expense cutting (recovery hopes given up) - investment banking and brokerage cutbacks - state and city worker cutbacks - California brink of bankruptcy (plus NewYorkCity, other states) I will say 2003 ends with jobless rate at 6.7% and 2004 ends with jobless rate at 7.5% these are not standout numbers, but they will hurt badly if true your friends at 10% overlook the vast power of the Feds to trade inflation for job savings, which is already promised / jim