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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jkl77™ who wrote (72337)	1/10/2003 4:15:25 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 100058

jkl, faith in the cycle calls? Faith isn't the word I'd use, but is the Bradley model useful? Yes and no would be my answer. The Bradley model has been fairly accurate(11/14 correct calls since I started tracking it last summer)but the turn calls can be misleading unless you get further into the "rules" of turn calls. The turn calls have been pretty good, but only for lasting 1-2 days, and thus only good for ST trading. In other words, say for example that the Dow closes at 8800 on 1/17 and the Bradley calls for a high that day; then you might expect a down day the next day, but that down might only last 1-2 days (in other words, don't expect the market to exactly follow the cycle chart). The other commonly observed "rule" is that the turn calls, whether they're by the Bradley model or any of the guru turn callers, (Favors, Carpino, velociraptor, Hahn) is that the call is allowed a leeway of plus/minus one trading day, so it's actually a 3-day window. Some day I'm going to try a more mathematically based study to see how closely random picks, with the same plus/minus one day margin of error, will compare to the actual turn calls by the Bradley model and the gurus. Here's a nice bookmark for you of the Bradley model by Williams/Cyclepro: geocities.com BTW: if the burning question was "how do I use these calls for actual trading?" the answer is that it is secondary to conventional TA. I used to dismiss all the turn call stuff but the E-wavers reignited my interest in it so I'm giving it further study