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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (11572)	1/10/2003 7:16:23 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

State hikes may offset Bush plan As the president urges tax cuts to spur economy, states from California to Kentucky slash budgets and raise taxes. from the January 10, 2003 edition The Christian Science Monitor csmonitor.com By Mark Sappenfield \| Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor SAN FRANCISCO - One day after President Bush stood before the nation and announced a plan to loosen the grip of economic stagnation, California Gov. Gray Davis began to tighten it. It was not his intent. Nor is he alone. Instead, he is but one of many governors - indeed almost all - who are delivering State of the State addresses this month with an ominous message: the promise of huge spending cuts and the possibility of new taxes. In the face of the massive White House proposal, which would give roughly $100 billion to Americans next year in tax cuts and services, such news might seem less daunting. Yet the depth of the budget crises in statehouses - with deficits totaling as much as $60 billion - is forcing states to pull back on the things that would normally spur growth to the point that it may offset the benefits of the Bush plan. It is setting up an unwitting collision over fiscal policy between Washington and the states that will help determine the future of the economy and the fortunes of Main Street. Already, the relationship between governors and Mr. Bush has been strained by the administration's demand that they pick up more of the tab for homeland security and federal programs like Medicaid and education reform. Now, to some degree, Bush finds the success of his plan in their hands. "Anything states do to balance their budgets is not going to help the economy," says Nicholas Jenny of the Rockefeller Institute in Albany, N.Y. And if state and local authorities have to raise taxes significantly, he adds, "that can actually have a much bigger impact on how people run their finances" than Bush's tax cuts. Different mandates For rest of article, click on link: csmonitor.com

To: lurqer who wrote (11572)	1/11/2003 9:54:43 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

market rally should continue syharding.com

To: lurqer who wrote (11572)	1/12/2003 2:40:10 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Baby boomers meet their match Chicago Tribune Editorial Published January 11, 2003 Baby boomers have ruled for decades. It has been the natural order since the Age of Aquarius. They like it that way. But now their cultural supremacy is being threatened by two inexorable demographic factors. First there is this ticking clock thing. Elastic waistbands and those endless Rolling Stones and Paul McCartney tours can't alter the cold, hard facts. Face it, boomers. You're old and getting older. The inconvenient graying, wrinkling and sagging perhaps could be dealt with by this generation. Its large numbers have always allowed it to distort society in a pig-in-the-python kind of way. Boomers already have begun to loudly insist that 50-something is so totally happening, man. Expect them eventually to try this tact for 60-something and--meaning no disrespect to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld but heaven help us--70-something. The Wall Street Journal noted this aging recently, calling baby boomers "has-beens." Columnist Robert Samuelson in Newsweek referred to the challenges employers face in managing a "mature" workforce. Mature, schmature! Boomers know that's a code word for over the hill. They will never own up to that. Trust us, this generation will not go quietly into seniorhood; it has never gone quietly anywhere. But there is this other not-so-little demographic problem the boomers are just beginning to confront: Their very own children. Those protected, indulged bundles of joy the boomers have spent the last few decades churning out--think tens of millions of "Baby on Board" car decals--have now grown into their own formidable generation. They have been called the "Millennials," "Generation Y" and the "Echo Boom." The bookend years of this generation vary some depending on what demographer is talking (there's some dispute about whether Gen Y births began in the late '70s or early '80s) but just about everyone agrees this is a big bulge. Gen Yers are now about 74 million strong, just a tad smaller than the boom's 78 million. They're crowding into the schools, from elementary level to college, and they are starting to make their own kind of noise. Frankly, one reason boomers held onto their cultural supremacy so long was that the subsequent Generation X is so much smaller. Boomers make up about 29 percent of the U.S. population. Gen Xers report in at 40 million, about 16 percent. Sheer numbers ruled. (Also, quite honestly, boomers' music was better.) Gen Y, though, is big--about 27 percent of the U.S. population. They're demanding their own music, defining their own trends and they are starting to matter to advertisers, to retailers, to politicians. Boomers just may have met their match. They have no one to blame but themselves--they created their competition. Copyright © 2003, Chicago Tribune chicagotribune.com

To: lurqer who wrote (11572)	1/12/2003 9:57:42 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

I love the Gold QQQ idea IRA accounts could hold them eventually maybe 401k account could offer them this is happening already in Canada with Central Fund sorry for slow reply, getting behind with 40 items in INBOX / jim

To: lurqer who wrote (11572)	1/14/2003 12:48:58 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Weekly Market Perspective By Richard E. Cripps, CFA Chief Equity Market Strategist Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc. January 9, 2003 The prominent forecast for the stock market in 2003 is that odds of a fourth consecutive year of negative losses are low. It has happened only once in over 100 years. However, statistical inference is not so bold. The reality is that the Dow Jones Industrials rose in 65 of the 100 years from 1900-2000, which places a 65% probability of the DJIA rising, versus 35% falling, in any given year. It is also interesting to note that the statistical probabilities of four consecutive down years are lower than having nine consecutive up years as the DJIA experienced from 1991-1999. The case for a higher stock market is fundamental. The Federal Reserve and soon Congress will pursue an aggressive policy to stimulate economic growth. Interest rates are low, money supply is growing, and Washington is mixing a heady brew of incentives to spur capital spending and investment in the stock market. Corporate America has not been idling while suffering anemic growth in demand the last several years. Operating costs have been reduced, lowering break-even levels and priming the outlook for profitability - once revenue growth moves sustainably higher. The risks to a positive year are not hard to envision. Equity valuations are on the high side of their historical average, global military and political conflict creates uncertainty, and investor sentiment is still smarting from the longest and deepest bear market since the Depression. However, the negatives are receiving a fair share of the headlines and expectations appear subdued, which are favorable conditions for the contrarian investor. With the caveat that forecasts can be more dangerous than useless, we offer the following. * The inflection point for the stock market is 965 on the S&P 500. This level was the high after this summer's market plunge. Assuming the level is breeched, it would represent the largest percentage rise since the bear market began in March 2000. It also would be a rally that overtakes a previous high, a first in this bear market. * There is a systemic short interest in the U.S. market. This is partly because the dominant trend has been down and also due to the popularity of hedge strategies to mitigate downside risk. Psychologically, we believe short selling begins to unwind with the 965-inflection point in the S&P 500. * The share of money market assets to total equity mutual fund assets is the highest since 1991. Additionally, the $2.3 trillion in money assets is a higher percentage to the total equity market value (Wilshire Total Market Index) than in 1982. There is plenty of liquidity on the sidelines to fuel a market advance. * Interest rates on Treasury bonds are likely to rise, which will be a modest positive for stocks. Falling Treasury bond yields have followed stocks lower. In late September, the year-over-year performance of stocks versus bonds reached its greatest disparity since the Depression. * Our target level for the S&P 500 at some point in 2003 is the 1050-1100 area. While it is unlikely that the target level is reached before there is more clarity on the situation in Iraq, the resolution could be more the marking in the midpoint of a rally than the bell ringing of a new bull market. Investors may also take some comfort in the reversion to the mean principle that underlies so much of nature. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year performance of the market is so out of synch with its 10-, 25-, and 50-year average. Taken together, we are optimistic for some significant opportunities in 2003. (c) Copyright 2003 Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc.