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To: John Madarasz who wrote (63431)	1/10/2003 7:42:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 209892

From Brian on the FOOL Jan 10: Corrections can show complex patterns, and it looks like the S&P is doing that here since the wave pattern isn't very clear and does not appear complete. There is still a way for the S&P to fit into an impulsive count (for the light blue count) - but the odds are fading. It depends on being able to count the S&P from January 6 as an A-B-C correction or an A-B-C-D-E correction. After today, an A-B-C would apparently require a wave C decline to about 908 or more and then an impulsive turn up. Otherwise, there isn't a clear Elliott Wave path from here to another big leg up. Barring that, thought, it looks like we're nearing the top of this correction from the December lows. If so, then it seems more upside is likely because the wave C (red) subdivisions do not look complete or clear. Some of the technicals do not agree with this move up, and are showing some bearish divergences. The ADX and the RSI on the 60 min. and the VIX/SPX chart on page 2 are examples. The P/C chart points to a top near, and the VIX chart shows a falling wedge. So on the whole, it appears this is about over - regardless of the final wave pattern that unfolds. When the S&P does move down impulsively, the telltale sign of whether it is the start of Wave 3 or a wave C from Jan. 6 will be the correction afterwards. A good overlapping rebound from the move down – that is not an impulse wave – would be one way to confirm the downtrend and the start of Wave 3. Then it will be down past the October lows (finally!). stockcharts.com All the Best, Brian