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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (17800)	1/12/2003 12:18:13 PM
From: hueyone	Respond to of 19079

Hi Lizzie: I am not suggesting there is only one way to evaluate an investment. Neither I am suggesting anyone short Oracle or not buy Oracle. I am merely recognizing one measure of risk, noting that Oracle has generated very little book value over and above paid in capital over the years, and that in my opinion, employees have been paid excessively in relation to this internal financial performance of the company. Were Oracle to perform similarly over the next ten years, I would say Oracle has some downside risk if, and this is a very big "if", investors were to return to more conservative valuation measures, for example, valuing a business as the sum of future discounted cash flows available to owners. Having said that, if someone put a gun to my head today and said I had to either buy or short Oracle, I would be more inclined to buy, figuring that it still seems to only take fair to midland real, internal financial performance by a tech company to attract tech investors that are willing to award said companies with very high valuations. In addition, I view Oracle as reasonably well positioned relative to its competitors and a long term survivor. Regards, Huey

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (17800)	1/13/2003 11:22:46 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19079

the problem is, most tech cos are no longer growth cos. just compare their stinky sales the past couple years with their sales at the peak. never mind the nonexistent or meager profits! their growth during the late 90s was to a significant degree artificially driven by the bubble. because people remember the recent past more clearly than the distant past, they still think most tech cos are "strong growers". this is an illusion that will be exposed. most tech cos are in fact terrible businesses because rapid obsolescence makes it hard to sustain profitability in tech. however, investors continue to love tech stocks, well beyond what they are worth. this love affair will end very badly imo.