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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (18455)	1/10/2003 10:12:32 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Dabum, I agree with all your signs, and have seen others as well. Just today there was a small deployment from Fort Hood. I've seen others for weeks now, including British, and talk of French troops. I'm afraid we are going in. First Iraq and then after things there are resolved North Korea is next. I have great faith in our military planners, but I do hope they have the sense to avoid any and all urban combat. Politically we are not able to withstand the loses in personnel that would result in. Sharp

To: chowder who wrote (18455)	1/10/2003 10:19:58 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

For some reason, I think we will go right to the brink of war, maybe even send in some sorties to hit Iraqi air defense, then back off in return for more extensive sanctions and a greater U.N. presence. One big reason is Venezuela gives Iraq a lot of leverage - just cutting off Iraq's oil will send the price way up. If Iraq manages to hit other oil fields, and Kuwait is easy for them to reach, it could put prices way over $40/bbl. for about a year, which might push the world and the U.S. into a recession/ depression. That situation, namely a world wide recession, would increase the leverage of another nut case, namely Kim Jong-Il. By attacking South Korea conventionally, this would create a hugh distruption in trade, especially electronics and auto parts, shutting down industries in Japan, Taiwan, China, the U.S., and Europe. This fall, Venezuela is producing, North Korea bought off / pressured to back off, and we can deal with Saddam. It is unlikely he is very close to any NEW WMD at this time.