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To: jjstingray who wrote (63453)1/10/2003 10:10:01 PM
From: bcrafty  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
jj, maybe - if it follows the chart pattern

With the first school of thought saying that you can't expect the VXN to behave like a stock or index.

As far as a correlation to the inverse of the COMP or NDX, it's close but not really precise. The VXN chart shows a low on 11/21 where the high on the indices was on 11/11. Ten days is a lot, IMO. The VXN bottom on 11/21, doesn't correlate well with the top of the indices on 12/1 either, also a ten day difference. These differences might not make a significant difference to people with loose stops, but does is to me.

You could very well be correct; as far as me personally I don't like to chart the VIX and VXN as I do stocks or indices, as I think of them as a different animals as they sometimes just don't behave the same way. It depends, in part, as to how much leeway one wants to give in the interpretations of the charts and the correlations.

I think that the VIX and VXN becomes more accurate at predicting tops and bottoms when it approaches extremes, and by extremes I mean 18-21 for the VIX and 36-40 for the VXN - but we might get to these extremes and we might not, despite the wedge.