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To: mishedlo who wrote (213860)	1/11/2003 2:00:40 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I think people are missing the single most important reason why this year could be the worst yet for stocks: AG is almost out of ammo. Despite his (and Bernanke's) protestations to the contrary, monetary policy traction IS about to run out. Yes, there are ways to try to jam more money into the system, but none are nearly as direct as the lowering of interest rates. Get Fed Funds to 0% and it becomes much, much trickier to lower market-based rates. Sure, you can buy all the bonds you want, but unless it gets transmitted through to borrowers in terms of lower rates, it doesn't help save the marginal overleveraged debtor. Our variable rate debt is almost entirely tied to short-term interest rates that are nearly zero. We're all so conditioned to believe in the Fed that even we bears are buying the latest line. They are partially correct, but hoping we all buy their half truths. In reality, the credit bubble is in serious trouble. Without further declining nominal rates, credit creation will seize up quickly. That should happen this year, and then the free market response, suppressed for so long, will be unleashed. <ng> BC

To: mishedlo who wrote (213860)	1/11/2003 2:53:59 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 436258

<The falling $ makes the US stocks less attractive. There are forces on the $ that are going to keep it headed south> i read i little item that came out in a little corner of the NYT many months ago. It simply stated that the Saudi Arabia Government(the royal family, hardehar:) had agreed that no moneys meant for the public would be invested in the U.S.A. Saudi Arabia plays the friend of the U.S. on the royal family side but the public of SA is deeply anti-american. SA not only holds the oil card, but as of last year the royal family had an estimated 700billion dollars invested in the U.S. i feel the royal family is maintaining there relations with the U.S. out of need for a powerful force to keep them in power, and that is the U.S.Max