To: mishedlo who wrote (89 ) 1/12/2003 10:04:41 PM From: Jim Willie CB Respond to of 1210 Ben Strong makes great points I believe the chances of REFLATION succeeding in melting away debts to be about 10-15% - last I checked, debts dont dissapear... instead, the debts must be reduced in size by means of the inflation so as to make them now seem and actually be manageable... I dont think 107% of household income is small now, nor will be after a couple years of inflation I believe the chances of REFLATION succeeding in creating new jobs (or stemming job losses) to be about 10-15% - as debt liquidation continues, and as corporate profitability is defended further, jobs will be shed on a regular basis... this is simply unavoidable during the balance sheet cleansing at both the corporate side and household side... and we aint even talked about cleansing the federal balance sheet (instead, it is about to radically worsen) I believe the chances of REFLATION succeeding in stemming job losses to be about 30-40% - the monetization process has the potential to arrest the job losses, as it pumps money left & right into Treasurys and CorpBonds and Stocks... but as the Austrians warn, acceleration of money supply is likely just to keep stable... my guess is that the Feds will VASTLY underestimate how much monetary expansion is necessary, and will be VERY LATE to react but he stresses the major risks involved as the commodity prices continue to rise, the dollar falls, and the stock market heads down further I believe the chances of REFLATION succeeding in encouraging economic recovery to be about 20-25% - utter stagnation will be very difficult to avoid, as investors lose patience, job layoffs lead to reduced consumer spending, as the car & housing sectors lead in job shedding... both high debt levels and job losses will be critical factors here NOT GOOD CHANCES / jim