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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (27307)	1/11/2003 12:32:13 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, I guess the demographics they counted were American. Americans are about 300 million, including the Canadian Americans as a rounding error. Heh, heh! Fun to tease Canadians. Actually, NZ is a rounding error on Canada, Canada is a rounding error on the USA and the USA is a rounding error on China and India. Unless they have got the Chinese, Indians and we little fractals in Hobbitville, figured into their wave functions, they are going to miss by a mile. <In simpler terms, they divide the various age groups and generations into "cohorts." They vary the birth rate of each cohort to show baby booms and baby busts. The ratio between young generations (or cohorts) and middle-aged generations is something they call a MY ratio. (Middle-Young) When you factor all the variables, apply different sets of economic assumptions, subject the model to "shocks" (such as the 1973 Oil Crisis) and so forth, the outcome is still the same: there is a strong correlation between the ratio of young and middle workers and the price to earnings ratio. > Mqurice