This is starting to sound serious:
U.S. Force in Gulf Is Said to Be Rising to 150,000 Troops
By ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON, Jan. 11 — The military force the Pentagon is massing in the Persian Gulf could be well positioned to attack Iraq on President Bush's order in mid- to late February, and it could exceed 150,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines, military officials said today.
Less than half of that force is in the gulf region now. But three large deployment orders signed by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld — two in the past 24 hours for a total of 62,000 troops and one on Dec. 24 for about 25,000 — have set in motion critical reinforcements of troops, armor, warships and combat aircraft.
The latest order, sent out overnight, directs 27,000 additional personnel to the gulf, including thousands of marines, an Army airborne infantry brigade, and a squadron of Air Force F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighters and two squadrons of F-16CJ radar-jamming fighters. An order late Friday dispatched 35,000 troops, half of them marines, to the region.
Until recently, the buildup had focused on moving heavy equipment, ammunition and supplies into place, and on putting logistics and command-and-control specialists in the region to receive and direct major ground forces. This week, the United States Central Command in Tampa, Fla., dispatched the vanguard of a 1,000-member battle staff to operate what would be its wartime headquarters in Qatar.
But the most recent orders signal a new and important phase in the campaign: the flow of the main battle force that is intended to put pressure on President Saddam Hussein to disarm, and, on Mr. Bush's command, to oust Mr. Hussein if he does not.
Assembling that large force in countries like Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and perhaps Turkey will still take several weeks, although the troops in the region now could attack if they had to, officials said. About 15,000 marines at Camp Pendleton, Calif., and Camp Lejeune, N.C., recently received authorization to embark on Navy ships destined for the gulf. In the next few days, ships bound for the Persian Gulf will begin loading Army tanks in Savannah, Ga., and Patriot antimissile batteries in Beaumont, Tex.
"By mid- to late February, we'll be in the best position to provide the president immediate flexible options to respond," said a senior military official.
Even as signs emerged this week that some allies were seeking to forestall any possible offensive to give United Nations weapons inspectors more time to complete their work, Gen. Tommy R. Franks, the commander of American forces in the gulf, briefed Mr. Bush at the White House on Thursday on the impending movement of troops and the military's Iraq strategy.
Earlier in the week, before the White House meeting, Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, "We're going to continue a steady, deliberate buildup to provide the president the flexibility he needs to do what he thinks he needs to do."
Privately, though, military officials say that starting an offensive before mid-February would pose several problems. Much of the main combat force may arrive by late this month, but newly arriving commanders prefer some time to prepare their units in their new desert positions.
Diplomatic hurdles remain. Turkey has yet to agree to stage tens of thousands of American ground troops from its bases, jeopardizing Pentagon plans for a northern thrust into Iraq that is critical to the military's strategy to attack Baghdad's overstretched forces from several directions. Such an American force would also secure northern oil fields and prevent any confrontation between the Turkish army and Kurdish forces.
Another complicating factor for an early offensive would be the hajj, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca. Two million Muslims are expected to travel to Saudi Arabia for ceremonies that culminate in mid-February. Although Mecca is far from any potential war zone, American officials fear a public-relations disaster in the Middle East if the United States began an offensive during the pilgrimage.
Pentagon officials have said that, should Mr. Bush order an attack on Iraq, a force of about 250,000 troops would be needed — about half the number who fought the gulf war in 1991. But the initial "rolling start" of the assault would begin with a substantially smaller force, with the rest held in reserve in case of battlefield surprise or setbacks or as a security force once the war was over. The military has created a special joint task force to plan for the aftermath of any conflict, a senior official said.
Although the buildup in the gulf has been visible for weeks, the contours of the specific force to be marshaled there has become evident in the United States only in recent days.
Mr. Rumsfeld's directive on Dec. 24 led to the Army last week to order more than 11,000 soldiers from the Third Infantry Division at Fort Stewart, Ga., to join a brigade of 4,000 troops from the division already in Kuwait. On Tuesday, the Army will begin loading M1 Abrams tanks, Apache helicopter gunships and other equipment on two landing ships, the Mendonca and the Gilliland, in Savannah, Ga.
Another military cargo ship, the Seay, is set to leave Beaumont, Tex., by week's end, loaded with Patriot antimissile batteries and wheeled vehicles from Fort Bliss, Tex., a military official said.
The Third Infantry Division is the first of perhaps three or four heavy Army divisions that together with a lighter Army division, like the 101st Airborne, that could be sent to the region, officials said.
The Army has summoned 3,000 Army commanders and civilian planners from four of its major units to Germany for an exercise later this month called Victory Scrimmage. Commanders will conduct computer simulations to run through Iraq war plans, officials said. The units include the First Infantry and First Armored divisions, which are based in Germany, as well as the 101st Airborne and the First Cavalry Division, an armored unit at Fort Hood, Tex.
Under Mr. Rumsfeld's order on Friday, about 17,500 marines, including the amphibious task forces loading up at Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton, will leave soon for the gulf. They will join a headquarters element of more than 1,000 marines from the First Marine Expeditionary Force already in Kuwait.
For the first time in the current buildup, Marine Corps officials are preparing to tap into stocks of heavy equipment and other matériel that is stored on ships in the Mediterranean Sea and at Diego Garcia, Britain's Indian Ocean base. The first ships are expected to beginning unloading their cargo in gulf ports, probably Kuwait, as early as next week, a military official said.
In an unusual move, the Marine Corps this week issued an order barring virtually all marines from leaving the service. The order, the first service-wide freeze on discharges since the 1991 Persian Gulf war, prohibits the nearly 175,000 active-duty marines and tens of thousands reservists from leaving the service or changing assignments, starting Jan. 15. The corps will make exceptions for people who had already filed papers to retire by April 1 and in some other cases.
Gen. James L. Jones, who is leaving his post as Marine Corps commandant to become the NATO supreme commander in Europe, said this week that 65,000 to 75,000 marines would probably be involved in any military action against Iraq.
The Navy now has one aircraft carrier, the Constellation, in the Persian Gulf, and another, the Harry S. Truman, in the Mediterranean. Each carrier has about 40 combat aircraft on board, including F/A-18 Hornets and F-14 Tomcats. The Navy is also keeping at least two more aircraft carriers, one on each American coast, ready to be begin heading to the Persian Gulf on 96-hour notice.
This week, the 1,000-bed hospital ship Comfort left its berth in Baltimore for Diego Garcia, where it will await orders to deploy even closer to the gulf region.
A formidable air armada is also taking shape, and unlike the ground forces, it can quickly deploy to airfields in the region. A handful of B-1 bombers left Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., this week for Oman. Within the next week or so, several other Air Force units are expected to send combat aircraft to bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the region, officials said.
These units include the First Fighter Wing, an F-15C fighter unit based at Langley Air Force Base, Va.; F-15E Strike Eagles from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C.; the 28th Bomb Wing, a B-1B unit at Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D.; AC-130 gunships from Hurlburt Field, Fla.; E-8C Joint Stars ground surveillance aircraft from Robins Air Force Base, Ga.; and Predator pilotless reconnaissance aircraft from Nellis Air Force Base, Nev.
If Mr. Bush orders an attack against Iraq, Air Force officials have said more than 500 Air Force combat and support aircraft could join the war.
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