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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (15763)	1/12/2003 6:56:55 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Mish, here is an excerpt from an email I sent to a friend yesterday: I don't think the general stock/pension/endowment/fund buying public have a clue about how current valuations compare to historical valuations, or about the overcapacity in industry at present. Neither do they understand money supply, or the battle the fed is waging by trying to get everybody to go into debt in order to spend money on products made by uncompetitive companies that would be better off out of business. What these people do understand is that stocks have fallen a lot recently, and are therefore bound to go back up again. If people want to do long term buy and mold in a bear market while we still have an asset bubble then just be thankful that these people are out there willing to give their money to us!

To: mishedlo who wrote (15763)	1/12/2003 1:39:13 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Lizzie, look at the data. We have had fund inflows for years and years. Period. This is without question. People have decided to ride it out. In fact they kept pouring more $ in on the way down. Finally, after all these years, outflows just last year started. Whether or not you think the market goes up or not is a different story. I don't believe we need the outflows to even come close to the inflows over the years though, because the market took care of that for us. A 95%+ decline in naz mkt capitalization pretty much dealt with it. The combination of this bear and halted inflows (which you seem to agree with me on) means the public is gone, and the money that he had in the market is gone. Especially the naz I am talking, I don't know about the S&P really. No new money coming in, fund cash levels zero, trading volumes 1/3 of peak, naz issues at 1982 levels and overall mkt capitalization for nasdaq down 95%, huge layoffs/depression like work climate so no ESPPs, what else is there? This (2003) market reminds me of 93/94, its definitely not like the late 90s, when every tech sector went up. But in 93/94 if you were invested in the hot areas.. peoplesoft, oracle for example and companies like those, you did great. Thats how it is now it seems to me. You can make money shorting the weak stuff and make money long in the emerging growers in tech. Lizzie

To: mishedlo who wrote (15763)	1/12/2003 3:16:12 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

<< fund outflows just starting is not a debatable point IMO. >> Sure it is. There could easily be one or two years of outflows and then another uninterupted 15 years of inflows. I see absolutely no reason why that could not happen; even if the market continued lower for another year or more. A hundred million people in the US are working and about half of them have automatic deposits to 401k and/or stock purchase plans. A few might abandon this practice, but most will not. IMO, Dave