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To: stockman_scott who wrote (10328)	1/12/2003 7:29:35 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

Re Bernie Schaeffer: Now thats more like it !! He is right on to emphasize investor confidence and to point out institutional activities instead of talking as though only individuals (us) control the market. He also uses options to determine directions, and the volume of options in use has increased enormously even since 1999. 1/2 of the stocks I have dealt with have added options since then, and the quantity of Intel calls at one time exceeded 100,000 for just one strike and one expiration date. That fact would make his predictions a bit less assured than otherwise and may account for the fact that the VIX indications today are somewhat cloudy and not quite what he expected. On the ride up the bubble, people were fearless ( stocks would always go up so just hold) The Dow would either go up or stay flat and some of the most powerful bulls predictions were exceeded On the way down, people looked for the turnaround, but were still unafraid ( fund managers have no fears over losing other people money) At this time of uncertainty nobody knows where the market will be in one year, with predictions for a Dow of 3500 up to 14,000.A period of distrust of brokers , CEO's, earnings estimates, and analysts. A final admission that nobody knows where we are going IMO fear is the biggest market-controlling factor, and greed the second. There are long lasting periods of fear. The Cold war calling for fallout shelters and underground cities/ factories. The collapse of the Savings and loans with fear of losing deposits and savings - then the government stepped in to increase the guarantees and pay off when the bank could not. Fear of all the environmentalists- some proper, some not . Vanishing species, forests, chemicals and pesticides It seems we can't live without fear Fear built up during bubble deflation, was at a high level when 9-11 occured which threatened everyone. So the Government stepped in ( very properly) to calm things down- highly increased military and military visibility- airport security, business loans and liquidity. Whether we agree with Mr Bush or not, he was able to do the proper thing- overcome the fears by action on many fronts. Get the little empires- the Fbi, Cia, Ins, Btf to talk to each other and change some laws that constrained their actions in chasing terrorists. Improve military budgets. Mr. Bush is most importantly a family man. Two parents( somewhat unusual today haha), two daughters, a brother who is a Governor.He wants to keep the good stuff we had in the past for them and his grandkids. The ability to travel in safety, visit amusement parks, attend schools and ball-games without the risk of being blown to H%ll by some numbshull neanderthal from a foreign country who sneaked in with fake papers. The US is taking no chance whatever in losing this War if it occurs. We won the last one so natives are rather confident- relatively unafraid. The formula: MV=G-F ( market value equals greed minus fear) Greed is a constant (g) The direction of this market is going to be controlled by the Press and their war reporting If you told some of those news people the time and method of our attack "in confidence" it would be in the morning edition headlines Send Geraldo over there and and he would spend 1/2 hour interviewing the first American casualty Whats with it with those people? We lost 20000 or 30000 casualties taking just one crummy Island in the Pacific Sig