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To: 4figureau who wrote (2593)	1/12/2003 2:48:41 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 5423

thinking about Puplava's stating RedHerring risks - War with Iraq and/or North Korea - A major terrorist attack that follows a war with Iraq - A broadening Middle East War - The fall of the House of Saud - Sovereign debt defaults, i.e. Brazil - A spike in energy prices due to terrorism or war - A major default of a money center bank or major US financial institution i.e. Fannie/Freddie - The failure of a major derivative player such as a bank or hedge fund - A spike in credit spreads due to growing bankruptcies what strikes me as critically important is that these risks are NOT all inter-related sure, if MidEast erupts then oil prices surge but a spike in energy prices might come from other world centers like Venezuela, or from harsh winter, or from natural gas dwindling supplies I regard each bigtime risk as 10% likelihood but for at least one of them to occur, I regard that as prerhaps 70-80% likelihood !!! in probability theory, if two events are independent, such as credit-related bankruptcies and Brazilian default or terrorist attack, you ADD their respective probabilities when calculating the overall Prob{at least one event} this is basic stuff for those who care about Probability Theory, if two events can both occur, then ... Prob{A or B occur} = P{A} + P{B} - P{A and B both occur} e.g. Prob{draw Ace or Spade} = P{any Ace} + P{any Spade} - P{Ace of Spades} we have enormous chances for a systemic shock what Puplava doesnt cite as a rogue event risk is the overall terrain, whereby $32 trillion in debts serve as a rising water level within the US Living Room (aka Economy) I have watched the Saudi situation like a passive hawk absorbing all I run across, but not seeking it out this kingdom is more doomed that our Dollar Monetary system 2-3 critical assassinations in Riyadh and it is all over 2-3 explosives at oilfields or terminal ports and it is all over they have embarked on a public relations campaign last summer in Business Week a nice insert on all their industrial construction, and some on schools and hospitals but you cannot overlook the cities in the desert, and the LasVegas sincity for the princes 2003 may well mark the beginning of TERRORISM ON ARAB SOIL / jim