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To: Jeffrey S. Mitchell who wrote (4039)1/12/2003 3:49:39 PM
From: StockDung  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12465
 
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lebed.biz

January 2nd, 2003:

We are issuing a speculative strong buy on Acclaim Entertainment (AKLM), current price: $0.66.

We feel that in the upcoming weeks AKLM is poised to make a big move. On January 13th after the market closes AKLM will announce Q1 earnings and have their conference call. We feel that AKLM could double to $1.30 within the next couple of months and reach $2-$3 before summer.

Even if earnings are bad on January 13th, we feel it is probably factored into the stock price already. However, if there are major negative surprises, there is a chance AKLM could fall to $0.50. If the market cap dropped below $50 million it could force major institutions unloading and the price falling to $0.30.

We believe that our first scenario is much more likely to take place. Furthermore, if the second scenario takes place we feel AKLM will still rebound and reach $2-$3 before the end of 2003.

AKLM is a developer and publisher of video games for the PS2, X-Box, Gamecube, Game Boy Advance, and PC. During the past decade AKLM has been as high as $30 in 1993 and as low as $0.31 at the end of 2000. In 2001 AKLM rose over 2000% to as high as $6.25 before selling off in 2002 to the current price of $0.66.

AKLM has always had its ups and downs and the company has performed best in difficult situations. AKLM had major losses in 1996 and 1997 yet the stock never fell below $3 because of the strong market conditions at the time. In 1998 AKLM rallied from $3 to $12 because of the success of the WWF license they had signed. But in 1999 they lost the WWF license and in 2000 there was a console transition period which led to AKLM closing the year at $0.34 with only $6 million cash in the bank, $4 million in receivables, with over $31 million in payables.

AKLM was near bankruptcy yet they were able to turnaround and profit $0.22 per share in 2001 because of the strong launches of the next-generation consoles: PS2, X-Box, and Gamecube.

AKLM was projecting profits of $0.40 in 2002 and $0.67 in 2003. However, a game they were relying on to be a big hit this past Christmas season, Turok, was a flop and AKLM had to increase reserves for concessions and returns which led to AKLM reporting a small loss in 2002 with $270 million in revenues. AKLM also lowered 2003 guidance to break-even earnings with flat revenues of $270 million.

AKLM has been receiving a lot of media attention as of late with their mature title BMX XXX. AKLM also has had other strong titles in the recent months including Legends of Wrestling 2, Burnout 2, and Mary Kate and Ashley. None of these titles have been huge hits but our channel checks indicate that they have been selling out in many stores across the country.

The weakness in the stock price during December indicates to us that the market expects AKLM to report a major loss in Q1. No matter what the results are, once January 13th is out of the way the market can begin to look forward to February’s major releases of All Star Baseball 2004 and Vexx. AKLM’s All Star Baseball 2004 is an established franchise that is probably the best baseball game in the video game industry. Vexx is a new platform game franchise AKLM has been developing for 2 ½ years and has the potential to become a blockbuster hit.

If AKLM’s stock price doesn’t rebound soon on it’s own we believe the company could get bought out. There is a fundamental shift going on right now in the entertainment industry. We believe that large video game publishers will begin to acquire the smaller publishers like AKLM and that major entertainment companies like Disney will acquire the major video game publishers.

While the economy has been collapsing in the recent years, the video game industry has been growing at a tremendous rate. 3-4 years from now video games will look so real that you won’t be able to tell the difference between a baseball video game and a baseball game on TV.

We believe that things will go well on January 13th and that AKLM easily has the potential to double within the next month or two and reach $2-$3 by summer. If things go poorly on January 13th and AKLM falls, we believe it will only be a tremendous opportunity to acquire more shares and hold AKLM long term.

Lebed.biz holds a long position in AKLM.

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