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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oak Tree who wrote (65714)	1/13/2003 9:59:20 AM
From: Rascal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hello Oak Tree First, there isn't going to be a war, anyplace. The Administration is doing the math just like you are. It is important to keep our eye on "Who benefits?". So far the war talk has been a great benefit to this current administration since it keeps all other stories out of the news cycle. Everything is about money. We never found out who shorted those airline stocks prior to 9/11. And the amount of terrorist money "frozen" is peanuts compared to all the other pockets of money moving around because of this bellicosity. Prior to 9/11 Rumsfeld and the military could not agree on a budget. Since 9/11 it is a blank check funded by deficits as far as the eye can see. THe decision not to invade Iraq or talk to Korea will be positioned "just right" by Karl Rove. W will go from being the "war president" to the "peace president". Maybe he will change the name of the Defense Department to the Peace Department justifying an even bigger budget. Declaring peace can be just as profitable as invasion. Halliburton, Carlyle will probably get the contracts to "build democracy" in all the places with great natural resources. (Forget Africa for now, despite the humanitarian tragedy.) The can rename Star Wars the World Peace Umbrella, and nations would be required to either be under it or out in the cold rain. The biggest problem the administration has is to keep this on-edge-finely-tuned-world-class military in line once all the invasions plans and hype is deflated. I hope I am just a smart-aleck cynic. I hope this administration's motives are the highest and the leaders are the smartest. Unfortunately, I find them to be very reactive and not proactive. And when they react it is usally advantageous for the extremists in their party. The messages are mixed, the policy is inconsistent and their idea of evidence is disappointing. SOmetimes I feel that once W. makes his "incurious-low-knowledge-based-decisions" Powell, Cheney, and RUmsfeld have to quick step to cover the flaws. (For instance, re Dividend idea, has anyone looked into what this means for record-keeping for companies and confusion to the tax code? Furthermore, many of the dividends go into 401Ks and Iras which mean they will take a non-taxable dividend and change it into a taxable event when it is withdrawn by the retiree.) Maybe I'm on a rant, AGAIN. I hope I am wrong and will eat all the crow you care to send my way. Rascal@ hopingformore.com PS, Having worked at both Citibank and JPM, for many reasons I would choose the former for investment.