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Biotech / Medical : BIOTECH & TECHNOLOGY INVESTING *UNDERVALUED*{T/A F/A & V} -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EVENT HORIZON III who wrote (377)	1/13/2003 12:43:21 AM
From: tuck	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 423

Jeffrey, I think ARDM is dead money for a while. INHL did not see fibrosis until PIII. ARDM just started theirs, and it goes for two years. Until then, I don't know what can move it. The fundamental concern is they'll be about out of cash by the time the trial is done, and that safety issues beyond the minor antibody response will surface. It could be traded on technicals and macro fundamentals for a long time, IMO. RIGL, I have no technical opinion. Fundamentally, they have executed pretty well on their business plan, the problem is that it went public with a lot of VC ownership relatively early in its life cycle. They have said their strategy is to partner circa PII, and they are getting there with several programs. If they see a delay or setback with one, management needs to axe it. They have a year of cash, and I think they will do a deal or two before then. Next product gets to that stage, partner it before the cash runs dry again, etc. They cannot afford a stumble. But their tech value (no converts or debt) is a bit negative. Risk/reward at $1 looks pretty good to me, and insiders have bought recently at higher prices. I think insider buying in general, at this point, is telling in biotech. I think AFFX is hitting on all cylinders while competitors fall by the wayside in both expression and sequence analysis. Customers have complained about the cost, but a la Moore's Law, cost per data point has dropped steadily and will continue to do so. Yes, it has a rich P/E, but its projected growth rate more than justifies it. If they make their numbers, it's cheap, and they have a history of surprising to the upside. My nibble target is <$23, my back up the truck target is under <$19 -- unless they stumble first. I don't think the war will resolve as easily as it did the first time. The first time we had broad support, and we were just trying to get Saddam out of Kuwait. A regime change is a whole different kettle of fish, particularly with even British support wavering. If it doesn't start in another month, it won't till the fall. I think the market sells off soon, and recovers if hostilities don't commence. I also think bioterror and dirty bombs would be easy to do, particularly in port cities (I'm thinking of moving from S.D., and that is one of several reasons). At that point, we'd have some international support to go and kick ass, IF we knew who was behind it. If the perps are smart, they won't claim responsibility. Meanwhile, Saddam has been repositioning himself in a more religious way. Hard to say how much the population is buying into it. Also eyeing TLRK, MLNM, AMEV. MDCO, priced for perfection? How much cheaper is their new manufacturing process if the FDA gives them the green light? You follow them? Cheers, Tuck