Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pogbull who wrote (111)	1/12/2003 11:30:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

changing my mind also, Doc, housing decline to pick up I was convinced by Mauldin's reference of Greg Weldon last autumn things in real estate happen slowly we may have already seen big declines we wont know until the up4sale properties actually sell that is what is so unique about property it is an erosion process, agreed job loss will lead the process, as RichRussell said speculative buyers will end buying, then outright sell the demand side has already begun to erode the supply side hasnt figured it out yet new construction is still humming along except for Florida, I think the whole game is sputtering now / jim

To: pogbull who wrote (111)	1/13/2003 1:41:42 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 1210

I believe the China movement will be dictated by their yuan currency no idea yet on which Chinese stocks, way too early by 2 yrs as it is revalued upward, the movement begins in earnest they are in no hurry while the world turns & churns, their trade surpluses are massive $300B held in USTBonds now, more than Japan annual USA surplus is something like $50B, growing rapidly I believe the surplus has largest component as WalMart sales with the yuan so absurdly low, they are killing off Asian competition, forcing each Tiger economy to invest in capital base inside China Japan has made big commitments already, more coming for certain when the process is well underway, they will revalue upwards since the Asian PacRim Tigers will have committed to the Chinese capital base this is ALL about capex commitments, which are difficult to establish initially, and doubly difficult to back out of, once committed I intend to investigate in late 2004, early 2005 / jim