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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (65730)	1/12/2003 11:31:13 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 281500

Carl, every day that Iraqi oil is off the markets is another hugely profitable day for USA oil companies. So, there's no real hurry to get the oil on the market. Also, the longer they wait, the more the chance of something interceding to effect regime change and avoid the icky part. Have they found the Yeti yet, with his Weapons of Mass Destruction? Mqurice

To: Bilow who wrote (65730)	1/13/2003 8:12:33 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Officials, Experts: Iraq War Timetable Could Slip SanLuisObispo.com, posted on Mon, Jan. 13, 2003 By Charles Aldinger, Reuters sanluisobispo.com WASHINGTON - Despite the new year's flow of thousands of American troops to the Gulf, political and logistical pressure could delay any invasion of Iraq for months, U.S. officials and defense experts said on Monday. "Those soldiers can't just hit the sand shooting on arrival. I wouldn't expect anything in February, or even early March. And who knows what the political landscape will be then?" one U.S. official told Reuters. He and other officials, who asked not to be identified, spoke as international pressure grew for Washington to put off any invasion of Iraq. The issue is also complicated by Iraq's suffocating summer heat and sandstorms, in which the U.S. military would prefer not to wage war. Military analysts said they did not expect an immediate attack but warned that the Bush administration had painted itself into a difficult corner with the new troop movements. "It's not the end of the world if you have to bring them home in May before summer, then send them back in November or December," said Michael Vickers of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. "If sending troops now ends up in diplomatic concessions from Iraq. Then there's no egg on your face. You say the threat worked -- you avoided war and got something for it, even if it cost billions of dollars," Vickers told Reuters. But former Assistant Defense Secretary Larry Korb, now with the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, said the build-up could soon reach a point of "use it or lose it." "I believe administration expected to be in a position by the end of this month to go or not go. But it looks longer now. And that's tough politically," Korb said. ARMS INSPECTORS WANT TIME Suggesting that any invasion was not imminent, the White House stressed despite repeated warnings to Iraq's President Saddam Hussein that President Bush had set no timetable by which U.N. arms inspectors must complete their hunt for banned Iraqi weapons. "The president thinks it remains important for the inspectors to do their job and have time to do their job," presidential spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters on Monday in response to questions. "The president has not put an exact timetable on it." The comments came after a spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency told Reuters in Vienna that U.N. resolutions provided timelines of "somewhere between six and 12 months" for inspections even as Washington massed a major military force on orders from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Since late last week, Rumsfeld has signed two orders to send an additional 67,000 troops to the Gulf, a move that could give the U.S. military nearly 150,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines in the region by the end of February. "But even of you get the troops there, big logistical tasks remain in getting them married up with tanks and other equipment and getting them ready to pull together and fight a war," said one U.S. defense official. "We could be looking at months here," said another. "And you run into high temperatures starting in late May." The summer months are also marked in Iraq by the southern and southeasterly sharqi, a dry, dusty wind with occasional gusts to 50 miles an hour that stirs sand to foul engine intakes and damage helicopters. NO AGREEMENT FROM TURKEY Another defense official said the Pentagon was concerned that Turkey had not yet agreed to allow as many as 75,000 U.S. troops to launch a possible spearhead from that country into northern Iraq if Bush made the decision to go war. But he noted that U.S. military inspection teams were assessing possible improvements to bases in Turkey in case of a future agreement. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said in interview from Riyadh on Monday that a war against Iraq would be a catastrophe for the region, even if the U.N. Security Council declared Iraq in material breach of United Nations resolutions. "At least give us a chance (to see) what is possible. If we don't succeed, those working for war can have their war as they please, which is going to be a catastrophe for the region," he said on NBC's "Today" program. Top U.N. inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei go to Baghdad next weekend to demand Iraq account for missing stocks of such items as chemical bombs, nerve gas and missile engines. But they appeared anxious on Monday to slow the timetable of the attack the United States threatens to launch if Iraq's answers fail to satisfy. "No to war!" Pope John Paul said in an address on Monday. Germany, a new U.N. Security Council member, is strongly opposed to an invasion. After a meeting with Rumsfeld in Washington last week, Canadian Defense Minister John McCallum left open the possibility of joining any U.S.-led attack against Iraq, but suggested that his country wanted to give the U.N. inspectors time to do their work. "The inspectors are doing their job right now," he told reporters. "I don't think I can say at this point how much time they need. They're relatively early in the process, and let's just hope that they are successful as time goes on."