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Biotech / Medical : MDCO: Medicines Company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (36)	1/13/2003 8:17:25 AM
From: Mike	Respond to of 125

Tuck, First ask as many questions as you have in your head. I have been researching MDCO for almost six months. I am by no means an expert but do have access to a wealth of experience. I have been in the cardiology field for over 15 years. I am in hospitals everyday. I have been discussing Angiomax with not only cardiologists but also cardiovascular surgeons. The other contacts that I have are all sorts of staff people in the hospitals,other medical device reps and others in the field of cardiology. MDCO is working on quite a few indications other that angioplasty to expand sales. Below is a short list of the "expanded" indications for Angiomax. This section is for health care professionals only. Low Molecular Weight Heparin (LMWH) Pre-treatment Study PK/PD Study Ticlopidine Interaction Study Hirulog® (now ANGIOMAX®) Early Reperfusion/Occlusion (HERO-2) Trial Comparison of Abciximab Complications with Hirulog (now ANGIOMAX®) Ischemic Events Trial (CACHET) Phase A CACHET Phase B CACHET Phase C Anticoagulant Therapy with Bivalirudin to Assist in PCI (ATBAT) 1st Inning Trial (PCI in HIT/HITTS) Drug Interaction Study — ANGIOMAX® plus Integrilin vs. heparin plus Integrilin in PCI Drug Interaction Study — ANGIOMAX® plus Aggrastat vs. heparin plus Aggrastat in PCI REPLACE Study — ANGIOMAX® in the modern PCI setting CABG Off-Pump Study — ANGIOMAX® in OPCAB Graft Surgery For information regarding clinical activities contact angiomax@themedco.com For Angiomax® Medical Information Requests (health care professionals only) call 1-800-ANGIOMAX (1-800-264-4662). Home Copyright © 2002 The Medicines Company. All rights The entire lists is on the companies web site below. themedicinescompany.com I am very interested in this company as it's profile and current clinical activities have been "homeruns". The stock price does not reflect the opportunity that is ahead of it for '03. By having this discussion I am trying to find the "holes" out there that should be evaluated. The problem I have been having is I cant find many. There is risk. But the cost/benefit/risk profile I think is low for having a great stock for "03. If it saves you time dont hesistate to posting all your questions. This way we can decipher if I am married to this investment or we should all look further. Good investing, Mike

To: tuck who wrote (36)	1/16/2003 6:37:11 PM
From: Mike	Respond to of 125

On another board we are trying to determine an appropriate price for MDCO's stock. This is trying to look at current business and forward. Does anyone out there know how to develop a model for current value of the stock? Here is a post that I put together to try to determine that value. Godot, First thanks for the effort so far. First as far as profitability. The sales projections are for $70-$90M. Based on this sales range the company will lose between -0.11 to -0.20 in 2003. The company has the possibility of turning a profit in 2004. I think there maybe a realistic opportunity of becoming break even this year. Most likely in the fourth qtr. But lets assume this current year they will lose -0.11. And first qtr of 2004 they break even. They think longer term that Angiomax alone could be a $500M drug conservatively. I think this is 5 yrs out. So do analyst value the stock according to sales? One item to consider in determining stock price is to look at the balance sheet going forward. Currently for Angiomax the COGS (cost of goods sold) for Angiomax is 37-40%. The company will be using a new manufacturing process that will bring this COGS down to the 25-28%. This process is called the Chemilog process. This process has been approved by the FDA. They are just waiting for the final letter from the FDA before starting this up. So the COGS will drop 9-15 percentage points lower. Not lower by 9-15% but percentage points. Let me know if this helps in terms of placing a "value" on the stock. Thanks, Mike