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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38818)1/13/2003 2:09:39 PM
From: xcr600  Respond to of 69352
 
Message 18436708



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38818)1/21/2003 2:49:03 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69352
 
Oops. Maybe not so good for UTSI, NOK. RFMD and QCOM.

Maybe stronger for ADCT since they are strong in software and provide hardware.

************************

Dow Jones Business News
China's Telecom Companies Revenue, Users Up In '02 But Capex Falls
Tuesday January 21, 12:42 am ET

BEIJING -(Dow Jones)- China's telecommunications companies saw strong growth in their revenue and user base last year, but cut back sharply in their buying of capital equipment, according to official statistics issued Tuesday.

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While that is bad news for major equipment vendors like Alcatel S.A. and Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT - News) , it highlights how China's state-owned telecom operators are changing their spending patterns as the industry becomes more competitive.

"The money is moving from hardware to soft services," said Craig Watts of Norson Telecom Consulting. "The operators are using their money to prepare for competition, by investing in staff, operations and market research."

Revenue earned by Chinese telecom operators rose 14% in 2002 to an aggregate 411.6 billion yuan ($1=CNY8.28), the Ministry of Information said in a statistical report. The number of fixed-line phone users grew by 34 million to 214.4 million at end-December, while the population of mobile phone subscribers expanded 61.4 million to 206.6 million - the world's largest.

Yet that impressive growth was achieved with much less capital expenditure - in part because tough competition for contracts in China has eroded margins for equipment vendors. The ministry said fixed-asset investment by telecom operators plunged 20% to CNY203.5 billion in 2002.

That expenditure is still a huge figure, and there were some bright spots for vendors during the year - notably in sales of equipment to support the discount mobile phone service known in China as Xiaolingtong, and abroad as PHS, or personal handyphone system.

However, industry executives generally don't see a major rebound until operators start buying equipment to support the launch of third-generation, or 3G, mobile services - expected in 2004.

After all, subscriber growth is expected to slow this year as the market matures. Minister of Information Industry Wu Jichuan said Monday that China's mobile users will increase by 52 million in 2003, with fixed-line phone users growing by 33 million, state media reported.

"We think this year the equipment market is going to be down 20% again," said Watts. As for the hoped-for boost from 3G, he is skeptical: "They've been saying that for three years. But there's a lot of questions as to whether that's going to happen."


-By Andrew Batson, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 6588-5848; andrew.batson@dowjones.com