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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StormRider who wrote (83627)	1/14/2003 9:31:24 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 99985

"The prominent forecast for the stock market in 2003 is that odds of a fourth consecutive year of negative losses are low. It has happened only once in over 100 years." It would seem that the odds of a fourth down year are 50 -50 since in the year after the prior two 3 year down cycles one was up and one was down. It seems ridiculous not to realize that the initial conditions of a fourth down year are the fact that it follows three down years. Of course the probability of a fourth down year is infinitely higher than it was last year.