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To: crdesign who wrote (131)1/14/2003 10:25:49 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1210
 
a few quick thoughts on economy

all federal stimulus ideas will be watered down and made useless by Democrats in Congress
they did it with the tax cut last year, and will do it again
they will insist that tax benefits go to the poor, who will spend it quickly, or pay down some debt also
the more tax benefits that go to the rich, the more likely that businesses will not shed more jobs

WE NEED LARGE SCALE LIQUIDATIONS AND MONEY FOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT... USUALLY THAT MEANS GOVT STANDS BACK AND ALLOWS NATURE TO TAKE ITS COURSE... AND USUALLY THAT MEANS QUICK SPENDING PROGRAMS WONT WORK... WE WILL LATER (ONLY LATER) NEED CAPEX STIMULUS... ONLY CAPEX PRODUCES JOBS, SINCE SPENDING DOESNT... SPENDING ONLY PRODUCES A BIGGER TICKING TIMEBOMB

but the real trouble is that both parties are seriously blocking all efforts for the economy to allow liquidations, both of businesses and households
it is politically incorrect to allow bankruptcies
but that is the only thing that worked in 1981-82 under Reagan
the economy recovered quickly afterwards
of course now, the liquidations would be three times as many and require 2-3 years of unfettered dissolutions
no, all USGovt efforts will stall the recovery since they block liquidations

another thing, and this is nasty
what the USGovt gives in tax breaks, the states will take away in tax hikes !!!
ouch, watch out for state income taxes, property taxes, and sales taxes
they are all about to jump up
I love renting an apartment
and it even comes with a sports club membership nextdoor

sorry, this stagnation will last for a long time
when govt stimulus packages are out of the way, and some pain is administered, only then can we look for any recovery
we need another 10 million personal bankruptcies
we need another 10 million job layoffs

sad, tragic, but essential to fix the Clinton 1990 Decade of excesses in just about every single category known to man

/ jim