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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (4894)	1/14/2003 7:17:39 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

<<FIRST time ever in the last 11 years I reviewed below a years depreciation charge. I think that is significant. 2004 should be a huge spending year if we can plan ahead and wait that long.>> Maybe that series of years with depreciation > capex was a fluke, like getting a series of heads on a coin-toss. It happens occasionally, but it has zero predictive value. Maybe you're seeing causation when it's really correlation. IMO, Intel capex is driven by their best-guess about forward-12 (maybe 18-)-month supply/demand for semis in the markets they sell into. Depreciation, and the tax consequences of it, are a secondary (or less) consideration. The 1995-2001 period, and arguably still continuing, should be totally ignored as a Bubble that will not help in predicting the future. That's more than half your data. Do you have numbers (or know where I can find it), for the decade before 1990?