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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (42200)	1/14/2003 4:31:49 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I don't recall INTC raising capex after it's been set. 16:24 ET Intel sees 2003 gross margin of 51%, capex lower than expected (INTC) 17.79 +0.41: -- Update -- Co sees gross margins for Q1 at 50% and expects 2003 to be about 51%, plus or minus a few points (compared to 50% in 2002); capex is expected to be $3.5-$3.9 bln, vs Street expectations of about $4 bln and compared to $4.7 bln in 2002. IBM and MSFT are more important anyway. As I said earlier, INTC hasn't been a growth story in 5 years.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (42200)	1/14/2003 7:14:51 PM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

From Paul Kedrosky of realmoney.com: On this INTC capex issue, keep in mind that a capex forecast is a fluid thing, more a reflection of a semi house's wishes for the year than reality. So INTC's final capex for the year could be quite different from what it's currently forecasting -- higher or lower. To put this year in context, looking back to 1996 Intel's actual capex has been the same or lower than its forecast capex in five of those seven years. On average, capex came in 2% lower than forecasted. Here are the numbers: Year Forecast ($b) Actual ($b) Diff 1996 4.1 3 -27% 1997 4.5 4.5 0% 1998 5.3 3.6 -32% 1999 3 3.4 13% 2000 5 6.67 33% 2001 7.5 7.3 -3% 2002 5.5 4.7 -15% 2003 3.7 ? Average: -4%