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Strategies & Market Trends : Moufassa's Lair -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moufassa7 who wrote (11457)	1/14/2003 5:36:40 PM
From: Trumptown	Respond to of 13660

Maybe a good forward outlook on the way...either way tomorrow's a tough call...

To: moufassa7 who wrote (11457)	1/14/2003 6:27:59 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13660

moufassa7: This can all be summed up in one word: "Seasonality". The market simply wants to move higher (although not MUCH higher, imo) and the news and earnings reports are being spun to do so or the reports are simply ignored. You are correct -- the Intel report and earnings are very mediocre and in the LONG term portend further declines in the markets. However, in the ST it really doesn't matter that much. Imagine if this conference call had come out in July 2002 -- what do you think the market response next day would be? My guess is that the market works its way higher in a "2-step forward, 1-step back" fashion for most of this month and through most of the earnings with Nasdaq perhaps reaching 1550 or 1600 if sanity is temporarily suspended. In February, reality will once again rear its ugly head and bad news will once again be bad news.

To: moufassa7 who wrote (11457)	1/14/2003 7:04:23 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 13660

I would keep my eyes on the similarity between now and March 2002 failure after the bounce from late February. Setting up in a very similar way. Failure after renewed pierce of 200DMA. Another possibility is that we are setting up similar to early January 2002. We got a double top on the final ramp. That would give us the fuel to get back over 1500 for a bit. Note that generally, this rally is weaker and more truncated than that from 9/21/01. Any ideas on what that means? It would seem to favor that we do not get a double-top here. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G